La Liga·Regular Season - 18·
La Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
52%
25%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction1.600.962.56safe0.63–2.570.11–1.820.74–4.38safer0.38–2.820.00–2.040.26–4.86
Shots on target
67%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.303.458.75safe3.43–7.161.71–5.195.14–12.35safer2.94–7.651.24–5.664.19–13.31
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2810.5125.78safe11.35–19.206.94–14.0718.30–33.27safer10.26–20.295.99–15.0316.25–35.32
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.176.4115.58safe6.23–12.113.73–9.109.96–21.21safer5.40–12.943.00–9.838.39–22.77
Blocked shots
54%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.033.227.25safe2.15–5.911.57–4.883.72–10.79safer1.60–6.451.08–5.372.68–11.82
Corners
68%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction5.773.809.57safe3.56–7.991.80–5.805.36–13.78safer2.99–8.561.26–6.334.25–14.89
Possession %
61%
35%
homeawayprediction53.4047.77safe46.61–60.1940.99–54.56safer44.94–61.8639.32–56.23
Passes
79%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction544446990safe477–611380–513856–1124safer459–629362–530821–1159
Pass accuracy %
43%
52%
homeawayprediction72.9073.79safe68.88–76.9369.47–78.11safer67.58–78.2368.16–79.42
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3711.7623.13safe8.53–14.218.82–14.7117.35–28.91safer7.78–14.968.07–15.4615.85–30.42
Offsides
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.851.213.06safe0.69–3.010.12–2.310.81–5.31safer0.39–3.310.00–2.590.22–5.90
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.023.73safe0.65–2.750.89–3.151.55–5.90safer0.39–3.020.60–3.440.99–6.46
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
25%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.383.465.84safe0.94–3.811.91–5.022.85–8.83safer0.55–4.201.48–5.442.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.60 0.63–2.57 0.38–2.82 | 0.96 0.11–1.82 0.00–2.04 | 2.56 0.74–4.38 0.26–4.86 | 52% 25% 23% |
| Shots on target | 5.30 3.43–7.16 2.94–7.65 | 3.45 1.71–5.19 1.24–5.66 | 8.75 5.14–12.35 4.19–13.31 | 67% 21% |
| Total shots | 15.28 11.35–19.20 10.26–20.29 | 10.51 6.94–14.07 5.99–15.03 | 25.78 18.30–33.27 16.25–35.32 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.17 6.23–12.11 5.40–12.94 | 6.41 3.73–9.10 3.00–9.83 | 15.58 9.96–21.21 8.39–22.77 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 2.15–5.91 1.60–6.45 | 3.22 1.57–4.88 1.08–5.37 | 7.25 3.72–10.79 2.68–11.82 | 54% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.77 3.56–7.99 2.99–8.56 | 3.80 1.80–5.80 1.26–6.33 | 9.57 5.36–13.78 4.25–14.89 | 68% 21% |
| Possession % | 53.40 46.61–60.19 44.94–61.86 | 47.77 40.99–54.56 39.32–56.23 | — | 61% 35% |
| Passes | 544 477–611 459–629 | 446 380–513 362–530 | 990 856–1124 821–1159 | 79% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.90 68.88–76.93 67.58–78.23 | 73.79 69.47–78.11 68.16–79.42 | — | 43% 52% |
| Fouls | 11.37 8.53–14.21 7.78–14.96 | 11.76 8.82–14.71 8.07–15.46 | 23.13 17.35–28.91 15.85–30.42 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.85 0.69–3.01 0.39–3.31 | 1.21 0.12–2.31 0.00–2.59 | 3.06 0.81–5.31 0.22–5.90 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.39–3.02 | 2.02 0.89–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.46 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.38 0.94–3.81 0.55–4.20 | 3.46 1.91–5.02 1.48–5.44 | 5.84 2.85–8.83 2.03–9.64 | 25% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+