Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.292.76safe0.50–2.440.43–2.140.93–4.58safer0.25–2.690.20–2.370.46–5.06
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.444.058.49safe2.58–6.302.31–5.794.89–12.10safer2.09–6.791.84–6.263.93–13.05
Total shots
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2311.4425.66safe10.30–18.157.88–15.0018.18–33.15safer9.21–19.246.92–15.9616.13–35.20
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.057.6116.66safe6.11–12.004.93–10.2911.04–22.28safer5.28–12.834.19–11.039.47–23.85
Blocked shots
56%
15%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.983.097.07safe2.10–5.861.44–4.743.53–10.60safer1.55–6.400.95–5.242.50–11.64
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.469.53safe2.85–7.282.46–6.475.32–13.74safer2.28–7.851.93–7.004.21–14.85
Possession %
39%
56%
homeawayprediction48.2451.79safe41.45–55.0345.00–58.57safer39.78–56.7043.33–60.24
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction444443887safe377–511377–510754–1021safer359–529359–527718–1057
Pass accuracy %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction69.1571.68safe65.12–73.1867.35–76.00safer63.83–74.4866.05–77.31
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction10.7712.2523.02safe7.93–13.619.31–15.2017.24–28.80safer7.17–14.368.56–15.9515.74–30.31
Offsides
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.882.164.04safe0.72–3.041.06–3.251.78–6.29safer0.42–3.340.77–3.541.19–6.88
Yellow cards
29%
22%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.983.48safe0.46–2.550.85–3.111.30–5.66safer0.19–2.820.56–3.400.75–6.22
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.52safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.055.82safe1.33–4.201.50–4.612.83–8.81safer0.94–4.591.07–5.042.01–9.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.47 0.50–2.44 0.25–2.69 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.76 0.93–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 41% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.44 2.58–6.30 2.09–6.79 | 4.05 2.31–5.79 1.84–6.26 | 8.49 4.89–12.10 3.93–13.05 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.23 10.30–18.15 9.21–19.24 | 11.44 7.88–15.00 6.92–15.96 | 25.66 18.18–33.15 16.13–35.20 | 67% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.05 6.11–12.00 5.28–12.83 | 7.61 4.93–10.29 4.19–11.03 | 16.66 11.04–22.28 9.47–23.85 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.10–5.86 1.55–6.40 | 3.09 1.44–4.74 0.95–5.24 | 7.07 3.53–10.60 2.50–11.64 | 56% 15% 30% |
| Corners | 5.06 2.85–7.28 2.28–7.85 | 4.46 2.46–6.47 1.93–7.00 | 9.53 5.32–13.74 4.21–14.85 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 48.24 41.45–55.03 39.78–56.70 | 51.79 45.00–58.57 43.33–60.24 | — | 39% 56% |
| Passes | 444 377–511 359–529 | 443 377–510 359–527 | 887 754–1021 718–1057 | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.15 65.12–73.18 63.83–74.48 | 71.68 67.35–76.00 66.05–77.31 | — | 35% 60% |
| Fouls | 10.77 7.93–13.61 7.17–14.36 | 12.25 9.31–15.20 8.56–15.95 | 23.02 17.24–28.80 15.74–30.31 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 2.16 1.06–3.25 0.77–3.54 | 4.04 1.78–6.29 1.19–6.88 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 3.48 1.30–5.66 0.75–6.22 | 29% 22% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.76 1.33–4.20 0.94–4.59 | 3.05 1.50–4.61 1.07–5.04 | 5.82 2.83–8.81 2.01–9.62 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.