Predicted match statistics
Goals
23%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.943.10safe0.19–2.131.08–2.791.28–4.92safer0.00–2.380.85–3.020.80–5.40
Shots on target
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.194.979.16safe2.32–6.053.23–6.725.56–12.77safer1.83–6.542.77–7.184.60–13.72
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1214.3926.51safe8.20–16.0510.83–17.9519.02–34.00safer7.10–17.149.87–18.9116.97–36.05
Shots in box
39%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction7.868.4616.32safe4.92–10.805.77–11.1410.69–21.94safer4.09–11.635.04–11.879.13–23.51
Blocked shots
37%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.033.396.42safe1.15–4.921.73–5.042.88–9.95safer0.61–5.461.24–5.531.85–10.99
Corners
47%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.699.68safe2.77–7.202.69–6.695.47–13.89safer2.20–7.772.16–7.234.36–15.00
Possession %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction45.5854.10safe38.79–52.3747.31–60.88safer37.12–54.0445.64–62.55
Passes
29%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction423490913safe356–490424–557780–1047safer337–508406–574744–1083
Pass accuracy %
15%
81%
homeawayprediction64.8672.24safe60.84–68.8967.91–76.56safer59.54–70.1966.60–77.87
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1812.6126.79safe11.34–17.029.66–15.5521.01–32.57safer10.59–17.778.92–16.3019.50–34.08
Offsides
59%
17%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.032.025.05safe1.87–4.190.92–3.112.79–7.30safer1.57–4.490.63–3.402.20–7.89
Yellow cards
46%
19%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.572.264.83safe1.52–3.621.13–3.392.65–7.01safer1.25–3.880.84–3.682.10–7.57
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.140.27safe0.00–0.300.00–0.320.00–0.62safer0.00–0.450.00–0.460.00–0.90
GK saves
44%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.112.956.07safe1.68–4.551.40–4.513.07–9.06safer1.29–4.940.97–4.932.26–9.87
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.94 1.08–2.79 0.85–3.02 | 3.10 1.28–4.92 0.80–5.40 | 23% 22% 55% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.32–6.05 1.83–6.54 | 4.97 3.23–6.72 2.77–7.18 | 9.16 5.56–12.77 4.60–13.72 | 33% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.12 8.20–16.05 7.10–17.14 | 14.39 10.83–17.95 9.87–18.91 | 26.51 19.02–34.00 16.97–36.05 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 4.92–10.80 4.09–11.63 | 8.46 5.77–11.14 5.04–11.87 | 16.32 10.69–21.94 9.13–23.51 | 39% 51% |
| Blocked shots | 3.03 1.15–4.92 0.61–5.46 | 3.39 1.73–5.04 1.24–5.53 | 6.42 2.88–9.95 1.85–10.99 | 37% 16% 47% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.77–7.20 2.20–7.77 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.16–7.23 | 9.68 5.47–13.89 4.36–15.00 | 47% 40% |
| Possession % | 45.58 38.79–52.37 37.12–54.04 | 54.10 47.31–60.88 45.64–62.55 | — | 29% 67% |
| Passes | 423 356–490 337–508 | 490 424–557 406–574 | 913 780–1047 744–1083 | 29% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.86 60.84–68.89 59.54–70.19 | 72.24 67.91–76.56 66.60–77.87 | — | 15% 81% |
| Fouls | 14.18 11.34–17.02 10.59–17.77 | 12.61 9.66–15.55 8.92–16.30 | 26.79 21.01–32.57 19.50–34.08 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 3.03 1.87–4.19 1.57–4.49 | 2.02 0.92–3.11 0.63–3.40 | 5.05 2.79–7.30 2.20–7.89 | 59% 17% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.57 1.52–3.62 1.25–3.88 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.83 2.65–7.01 2.10–7.57 | 46% 19% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.11 1.68–4.55 1.29–4.94 | 2.95 1.40–4.51 0.97–4.93 | 6.07 3.07–9.06 2.26–9.87 | 44% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.