La Liga·Regular Season - 18·
La Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
21%
22%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.923.00safe0.11–2.051.07–2.781.18–4.82safer0.00–2.300.84–3.000.70–5.30
Shots on target
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.555.298.83safe1.68–5.413.54–7.035.23–12.44safer1.19–5.903.08–7.504.27–13.39
Total shots
23%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5214.7626.28safe7.59–15.4411.20–18.3318.79–33.77safer6.50–16.5310.24–19.2916.74–35.82
Shots in box
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction6.4610.0216.48safe3.52–9.407.34–12.7010.86–22.10safer2.69–10.236.60–13.449.29–23.67
Blocked shots
29%
14%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.404.437.83safe1.52–5.292.77–6.084.30–11.37safer0.98–5.832.28–6.573.26–12.40
Corners
23%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction3.855.559.41safe1.64–6.073.55–7.555.19–13.62safer1.07–6.643.02–8.084.08–14.73
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction44.4856.66safe37.69–51.2849.87–63.44safer36.02–52.9448.20–65.11
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction430532961safe363–497465–598828–1095safer345–515448–616792–1131
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction65.3975.84safe61.36–69.4271.52–80.16safer60.07–70.7270.21–81.47
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction11.0211.7122.73safe8.18–13.868.77–14.6616.95–28.51safer7.42–14.618.02–15.4015.44–30.02
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.113.75safe0.49–2.811.02–3.201.50–6.01safer0.19–3.110.73–3.490.91–6.60
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.131.974.09safe1.08–3.170.84–3.101.91–6.27safer0.81–3.440.55–3.391.36–6.83
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.090.23safe0.00–0.300.00–0.280.00–0.58safer0.00–0.450.00–0.410.00–0.86
GK saves
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.595.93safe1.90–4.771.04–4.152.94–8.92safer1.51–5.160.61–4.572.12–9.73
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.11–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.92 1.07–2.78 0.84–3.00 | 3.00 1.18–4.82 0.70–5.30 | 21% 22% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.55 1.68–5.41 1.19–5.90 | 5.29 3.54–7.03 3.08–7.50 | 8.83 5.23–12.44 4.27–13.39 | 22% 66% |
| Total shots | 11.52 7.59–15.44 6.50–16.53 | 14.76 11.20–18.33 10.24–19.29 | 26.28 18.79–33.77 16.74–35.82 | 23% 70% |
| Shots in box | 6.46 3.52–9.40 2.69–10.23 | 10.02 7.34–12.70 6.60–13.44 | 16.48 10.86–22.10 9.29–23.67 | 16% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 1.52–5.29 0.98–5.83 | 4.43 2.77–6.08 2.28–6.57 | 7.83 4.30–11.37 3.26–12.40 | 29% 14% 57% |
| Corners | 3.85 1.64–6.07 1.07–6.64 | 5.55 3.55–7.55 3.02–8.08 | 9.41 5.19–13.62 4.08–14.73 | 23% 65% |
| Possession % | 44.48 37.69–51.28 36.02–52.94 | 56.66 49.87–63.44 48.20–65.11 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 430 363–497 345–515 | 532 465–598 448–616 | 961 828–1095 792–1131 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.39 61.36–69.42 60.07–70.72 | 75.84 71.52–80.16 70.21–81.47 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 11.02 8.18–13.86 7.42–14.61 | 11.71 8.77–14.66 8.02–15.40 | 22.73 16.95–28.51 15.44–30.02 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.65 0.49–2.81 0.19–3.11 | 2.11 1.02–3.20 0.73–3.49 | 3.75 1.50–6.01 0.91–6.60 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.13 1.08–3.17 0.81–3.44 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 4.09 1.91–6.27 1.36–6.83 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.90–4.77 1.51–5.16 | 2.59 1.04–4.15 0.61–4.57 | 5.93 2.94–8.92 2.12–9.73 | 54% 16% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.