La Liga·Regular Season - 18·
La Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
24%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.740.932.68safe0.78–2.710.08–1.790.85–4.50safer0.53–2.960.00–2.010.37–4.98
Shots on target
75%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction5.733.258.98safe3.87–7.591.51–5.005.38–12.59safer3.38–8.081.04–5.464.42–13.54
Total shots
92%
homeawaytotalprediction16.649.2025.84safe12.72–20.575.64–12.7618.35–33.33safer11.63–21.664.68–13.7216.30–35.38
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.366.5616.93safe7.42–13.303.88–9.2511.30–22.55safer6.59–14.133.15–9.989.74–24.12
Blocked shots
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.982.557.53safe3.10–6.860.90–4.204.00–11.07safer2.55–7.400.41–4.702.96–12.10
Corners
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction6.393.579.96safe4.17–8.601.57–5.575.74–14.17safer3.60–9.171.04–6.104.64–15.28
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction59.9439.54safe53.15–66.7332.76–46.33safer51.48–68.4031.09–48.00
Passes
94%
homeawaytotalprediction550361911safe483–618294–427777–1045safer465–636277–445742–1080
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction68.3865.93safe64.35–72.4161.61–70.26safer63.06–73.7060.30–71.57
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3812.8125.20safe9.55–15.229.87–15.7619.42–30.98safer8.79–15.989.12–16.5117.91–32.48
Offsides
30%
22%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.471.903.37safe0.31–2.630.80–2.991.11–5.62safer0.01–2.930.52–3.280.52–6.21
Yellow cards
24%
19%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.403.95safe0.50–2.601.27–3.531.77–6.12safer0.23–2.860.98–3.821.21–6.68
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
17%
13%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction2.133.886.00safe0.69–3.562.32–5.433.01–8.99safer0.30–3.951.90–5.862.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.78–2.71 0.53–2.96 | 0.93 0.08–1.79 0.00–2.01 | 2.68 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 57% 24% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.73 3.87–7.59 3.38–8.08 | 3.25 1.51–5.00 1.04–5.46 | 8.98 5.38–12.59 4.42–13.54 | 75% 16% |
| Total shots | 16.64 12.72–20.57 11.63–21.66 | 9.20 5.64–12.76 4.68–13.72 | 25.84 18.35–33.33 16.30–35.38 | 92% |
| Shots in box | 10.36 7.42–13.30 6.59–14.13 | 6.56 3.88–9.25 3.15–9.98 | 16.93 11.30–22.55 9.74–24.12 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.98 3.10–6.86 2.55–7.40 | 2.55 0.90–4.20 0.41–4.70 | 7.53 4.00–11.07 2.96–12.10 | 76% 14% |
| Corners | 6.39 4.17–8.60 3.60–9.17 | 3.57 1.57–5.57 1.04–6.10 | 9.96 5.74–14.17 4.64–15.28 | 77% 14% |
| Possession % | 59.94 53.15–66.73 51.48–68.40 | 39.54 32.76–46.33 31.09–48.00 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 550 483–618 465–636 | 361 294–427 277–445 | 911 777–1045 742–1080 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.38 64.35–72.41 63.06–73.70 | 65.93 61.61–70.26 60.30–71.57 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.55–15.22 8.79–15.98 | 12.81 9.87–15.76 9.12–16.51 | 25.20 19.42–30.98 17.91–32.48 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.47 0.31–2.63 0.01–2.93 | 1.90 0.80–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.37 1.11–5.62 0.52–6.21 | 30% 22% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 1.55 0.50–2.60 0.23–2.86 | 2.40 1.27–3.53 0.98–3.82 | 3.95 1.77–6.12 1.21–6.68 | 24% 19% 57% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.13 0.69–3.56 0.30–3.95 | 3.88 2.32–5.43 1.90–5.86 | 6.00 3.01–8.99 2.20–9.81 | 17% 13% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.