La Liga·Regular Season - 18·
La Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
57%
23%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction1.770.942.71safe0.80–2.730.09–1.800.89–4.53safer0.55–2.980.00–2.030.41–5.01
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.123.408.51safe3.25–6.981.66–5.144.91–12.12safer2.76–7.471.19–5.613.95–13.08
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3410.4024.74safe10.42–18.276.84–13.9617.26–32.23safer9.33–19.365.88–14.9215.21–34.28
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.696.7016.39safe6.75–12.634.02–9.3810.77–22.01safer5.92–13.463.28–10.129.20–23.58
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.902.906.80safe2.02–5.791.25–4.553.27–10.34safer1.48–6.330.75–5.042.23–11.37
Corners
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction6.113.689.79safe3.90–8.331.68–5.685.57–14.00safer3.32–8.901.14–6.214.47–15.11
Possession %
89%
homeawayprediction60.7038.78safe53.91–67.4932.00–45.57safer52.24–69.1630.33–47.24
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction570331901safe503–637265–398768–1035safer485–655247–415732–1071
Pass accuracy %
81%
16%
homeawayprediction74.6367.45safe70.60–78.6563.13–71.77safer69.30–79.9561.82–73.08
Fouls
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4813.6927.18safe10.65–16.3210.75–16.6421.39–32.96safer9.89–17.0810.00–17.3819.89–34.46
Offsides
51%
21%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.483.53safe0.88–3.210.39–2.581.28–5.78safer0.58–3.510.10–2.870.69–6.37
Yellow cards
29%
19%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.454.30safe0.80–2.901.32–3.582.12–6.48safer0.53–3.161.03–3.871.56–7.03
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.120.20safe0.00–0.240.00–0.310.00–0.55safer0.00–0.390.00–0.440.00–0.83
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.025.37safe0.92–3.791.46–4.572.38–8.37safer0.53–4.181.04–5.001.57–9.18
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.73 0.55–2.98 | 0.94 0.09–1.80 0.00–2.03 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 57% 23% 20% |
| Shots on target | 5.12 3.25–6.98 2.76–7.47 | 3.40 1.66–5.14 1.19–5.61 | 8.51 4.91–12.12 3.95–13.08 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 14.34 10.42–18.27 9.33–19.36 | 10.40 6.84–13.96 5.88–14.92 | 24.74 17.26–32.23 15.21–34.28 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.69 6.75–12.63 5.92–13.46 | 6.70 4.02–9.38 3.28–10.12 | 16.39 10.77–22.01 9.20–23.58 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.90 2.02–5.79 1.48–6.33 | 2.90 1.25–4.55 0.75–5.04 | 6.80 3.27–10.34 2.23–11.37 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 6.11 3.90–8.33 3.32–8.90 | 3.68 1.68–5.68 1.14–6.21 | 9.79 5.57–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 73% 17% |
| Possession % | 60.70 53.91–67.49 52.24–69.16 | 38.78 32.00–45.57 30.33–47.24 | — | 89% |
| Passes | 570 503–637 485–655 | 331 265–398 247–415 | 901 768–1035 732–1071 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.63 70.60–78.65 69.30–79.95 | 67.45 63.13–71.77 61.82–73.08 | — | 81% 16% |
| Fouls | 13.48 10.65–16.32 9.89–17.08 | 13.69 10.75–16.64 10.00–17.38 | 27.18 21.39–32.96 19.89–34.46 | 45% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.88–3.21 0.58–3.51 | 1.48 0.39–2.58 0.10–2.87 | 3.53 1.28–5.78 0.69–6.37 | 51% 21% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.53–3.16 | 2.45 1.32–3.58 1.03–3.87 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.56–7.03 | 29% 19% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.92–3.79 0.53–4.18 | 3.02 1.46–4.57 1.04–5.00 | 5.37 2.38–8.37 1.57–9.18 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.