La Liga·Regular Season - 19·
La Liga·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
35%
27%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.201.272.47safe0.24–2.170.41–2.120.65–4.30safer0.00–2.420.19–2.350.17–4.78
Shots on target
41%
14%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.064.208.26safe2.20–5.932.46–5.944.66–11.87safer1.71–6.421.99–6.413.70–12.82
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5411.7925.33safe9.62–17.478.22–15.3517.84–32.82safer8.53–18.567.27–16.3115.79–34.87
Shots in box
57%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction8.607.3515.95safe5.66–11.544.67–10.0310.33–21.57safer4.83–12.373.93–10.778.76–23.14
Blocked shots
37%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.403.817.21safe1.52–5.282.16–5.463.68–10.75safer0.98–5.831.66–5.952.64–11.78
Corners
43%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.784.799.57safe2.57–6.992.79–6.795.36–13.79safer1.99–7.572.26–7.334.25–14.89
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.7654.92safe38.97–52.5548.14–61.71safer37.30–54.2246.47–63.38
Passes
31%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction383443826safe316–451376–509692–960safer298–469359–527657–995
Pass accuracy %
84%
homeawayprediction61.7770.07safe57.74–65.8065.75–74.40safer56.45–67.0964.44–75.71
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6912.3325.02safe9.85–15.539.39–15.2819.24–30.80safer9.09–16.288.64–16.0317.73–32.31
Offsides
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.024.08safe0.90–3.220.92–3.111.83–6.34safer0.60–3.530.64–3.401.24–6.92
Yellow cards
44%
19%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.382.174.55safe1.33–3.431.04–3.302.37–6.72safer1.06–3.690.75–3.591.81–7.28
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.852.805.65safe1.42–4.291.25–4.362.66–8.65safer1.03–4.680.82–4.781.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.20 0.24–2.17 0.00–2.42 | 1.27 0.41–2.12 0.19–2.35 | 2.47 0.65–4.30 0.17–4.78 | 35% 27% 38% |
| Shots on target | 4.06 2.20–5.93 1.71–6.42 | 4.20 2.46–5.94 1.99–6.41 | 8.26 4.66–11.87 3.70–12.82 | 41% 14% 45% |
| Total shots | 13.54 9.62–17.47 8.53–18.56 | 11.79 8.22–15.35 7.27–16.31 | 25.33 17.84–32.82 15.79–34.87 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.60 5.66–11.54 4.83–12.37 | 7.35 4.67–10.03 3.93–10.77 | 15.95 10.33–21.57 8.76–23.14 | 57% 33% |
| Blocked shots | 3.40 1.52–5.28 0.98–5.83 | 3.81 2.16–5.46 1.66–5.95 | 7.21 3.68–10.75 2.64–11.78 | 37% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.78 2.57–6.99 1.99–7.57 | 4.79 2.79–6.79 2.26–7.33 | 9.57 5.36–13.79 4.25–14.89 | 43% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 45.76 38.97–52.55 37.30–54.22 | 54.92 48.14–61.71 46.47–63.38 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 383 316–451 298–469 | 443 376–509 359–527 | 826 692–960 657–995 | 31% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 61.77 57.74–65.80 56.45–67.09 | 70.07 65.75–74.40 64.44–75.71 | — | 84% |
| Fouls | 12.69 9.85–15.53 9.09–16.28 | 12.33 9.39–15.28 8.64–16.03 | 25.02 19.24–30.80 17.73–32.31 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 2.06 0.90–3.22 0.60–3.53 | 2.02 0.92–3.11 0.64–3.40 | 4.08 1.83–6.34 1.24–6.92 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.38 1.33–3.43 1.06–3.69 | 2.17 1.04–3.30 0.75–3.59 | 4.55 2.37–6.72 1.81–7.28 | 44% 19% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 2.80 1.25–4.36 0.82–4.78 | 5.65 2.66–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.