La Liga·Regular Season - 19·
La Liga·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.172.60safe0.46–2.390.32–2.030.78–4.42safer0.20–2.640.09–2.260.30–4.90
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.074.469.52safe3.21–6.932.71–6.205.92–13.13safer2.72–7.422.25–6.664.96–14.08
Total shots
53%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1813.3227.50safe10.25–18.109.76–16.8820.01–34.99safer9.16–19.198.80–17.8417.96–37.04
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction9.278.0217.28safe6.32–12.215.33–10.7011.66–22.90safer5.49–13.044.60–11.4310.09–24.47
Blocked shots
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.073.707.77safe2.19–5.952.05–5.354.23–11.30safer1.64–6.491.55–5.843.20–12.34
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.914.6310.54safe3.70–8.122.63–6.636.33–14.76safer3.12–8.702.10–7.175.22–15.86
Possession %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction52.3047.26safe45.51–59.0940.48–54.05safer43.84–60.7638.81–55.72
Passes
69%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction493432925safe425–560366–499791–1058safer407–578348–516755–1094
Pass accuracy %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction69.0170.14safe64.98–73.0465.82–74.47safer63.69–74.3364.51–75.78
Fouls
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4812.9623.44safe7.64–13.3210.01–15.9017.66–29.22safer6.89–14.079.26–16.6516.15–30.72
Offsides
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.503.39safe0.72–3.040.41–2.601.13–5.64safer0.42–3.340.12–2.890.54–6.23
Yellow cards
28%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.233.86safe0.58–2.681.10–3.361.68–6.04safer0.31–2.950.81–3.651.12–6.59
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.280.00–0.55safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
38%
16%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.943.186.13safe1.51–4.381.63–4.743.14–9.12safer1.12–4.771.20–5.162.32–9.93
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.46–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 1.17 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 43% 26% 31% |
| Shots on target | 5.07 3.21–6.93 2.72–7.42 | 4.46 2.71–6.20 2.25–6.66 | 9.52 5.92–13.13 4.96–14.08 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.18 10.25–18.10 9.16–19.19 | 13.32 9.76–16.88 8.80–17.84 | 27.50 20.01–34.99 17.96–37.04 | 53% 40% |
| Shots in box | 9.27 6.32–12.21 5.49–13.04 | 8.02 5.33–10.70 4.60–11.43 | 17.28 11.66–22.90 10.09–24.47 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.07 2.19–5.95 1.64–6.49 | 3.70 2.05–5.35 1.55–5.84 | 7.77 4.23–11.30 3.20–12.34 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.70–8.12 3.12–8.70 | 4.63 2.63–6.63 2.10–7.17 | 10.54 6.33–14.76 5.22–15.86 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 52.30 45.51–59.09 43.84–60.76 | 47.26 40.48–54.05 38.81–55.72 | — | 59% 36% |
| Passes | 493 425–560 407–578 | 432 366–499 348–516 | 925 791–1058 755–1094 | 69% 31% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.01 64.98–73.04 63.69–74.33 | 70.14 65.82–74.47 64.51–75.78 | — | 42% 53% |
| Fouls | 10.48 7.64–13.32 6.89–14.07 | 12.96 10.01–15.90 9.26–16.65 | 23.44 17.66–29.22 16.15–30.72 | 27% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.50 0.41–2.60 0.12–2.89 | 3.39 1.13–5.64 0.54–6.23 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.31–2.95 | 2.23 1.10–3.36 0.81–3.65 | 3.86 1.68–6.04 1.12–6.59 | 28% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.94 1.51–4.38 1.12–4.77 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 6.13 3.14–9.12 2.32–9.93 | 38% 16% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.