Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
27%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.380.952.33safe0.41–2.350.10–1.810.51–4.15safer0.16–2.600.00–2.040.03–4.63
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.543.407.95safe2.68–6.411.66–5.144.34–11.55safer2.19–6.901.19–5.613.39–12.51
Total shots
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7411.2023.94safe8.81–16.667.64–14.7716.46–31.43safer7.72–17.766.68–15.7314.40–33.48
Shots in box
52%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction7.747.0014.74safe4.79–10.684.32–9.689.12–20.36safer3.97–11.513.58–10.427.55–21.93
Blocked shots
60%
15%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.702.526.22safe1.82–5.580.87–4.182.69–9.76safer1.27–6.120.38–4.671.65–10.79
Corners
64%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction5.624.019.62safe3.40–7.832.01–6.015.41–13.84safer2.83–8.411.47–6.544.30–14.94
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction61.3937.89safe54.60–68.1831.11–44.68safer52.93–69.8529.44–46.35
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction531314845safe464–599248–381712–979safer446–617230–398676–1015
Pass accuracy %
76%
20%
homeawayprediction69.2163.29safe65.18–73.2458.97–67.62safer63.88–74.5357.66–68.93
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4316.2330.67safe11.60–17.2713.29–19.1824.88–36.45safer10.84–18.0312.54–19.9323.38–37.95
Offsides
20%
17%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction1.572.794.36safe0.41–2.731.69–3.882.11–6.61safer0.11–3.031.41–4.171.52–7.20
Yellow cards
33%
18%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.262.755.00safe1.21–3.301.62–3.882.82–7.18safer0.94–3.571.33–4.172.27–7.74
Red cards
74%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.200.33safe0.00–0.290.01–0.390.00–0.68safer0.00–0.440.00–0.520.00–0.96
GK saves
28%
16%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.333.195.52safe0.90–3.771.63–4.742.53–8.51safer0.51–4.161.21–5.171.72–9.33
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.35 0.16–2.60 | 0.95 0.10–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 2.33 0.51–4.15 0.03–4.63 | 47% 27% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.54 2.68–6.41 2.19–6.90 | 3.40 1.66–5.14 1.19–5.61 | 7.95 4.34–11.55 3.39–12.51 | 59% 13% 28% |
| Total shots | 12.74 8.81–16.66 7.72–17.76 | 11.20 7.64–14.77 6.68–15.73 | 23.94 16.46–31.43 14.40–33.48 | 58% 34% |
| Shots in box | 7.74 4.79–10.68 3.97–11.51 | 7.00 4.32–9.68 3.58–10.42 | 14.74 9.12–20.36 7.55–21.93 | 52% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.70 1.82–5.58 1.27–6.12 | 2.52 0.87–4.18 0.38–4.67 | 6.22 2.69–9.76 1.65–10.79 | 60% 15% 25% |
| Corners | 5.62 3.40–7.83 2.83–8.41 | 4.01 2.01–6.01 1.47–6.54 | 9.62 5.41–13.84 4.30–14.94 | 64% 25% |
| Possession % | 61.39 54.60–68.18 52.93–69.85 | 37.89 31.11–44.68 29.44–46.35 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 531 464–599 446–617 | 314 248–381 230–398 | 845 712–979 676–1015 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.21 65.18–73.24 63.88–74.53 | 63.29 58.97–67.62 57.66–68.93 | — | 76% 20% |
| Fouls | 14.43 11.60–17.27 10.84–18.03 | 16.23 13.29–19.18 12.54–19.93 | 30.67 24.88–36.45 23.38–37.95 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.03 | 2.79 1.69–3.88 1.41–4.17 | 4.36 2.11–6.61 1.52–7.20 | 20% 17% 63% |
| Yellow cards | 2.26 1.21–3.30 0.94–3.57 | 2.75 1.62–3.88 1.33–4.17 | 5.00 2.82–7.18 2.27–7.74 | 33% 18% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.20 0.01–0.39 0.00–0.52 | 0.33 0.00–0.68 0.00–0.96 | 74% 16% |
| GK saves | 2.33 0.90–3.77 0.51–4.16 | 3.19 1.63–4.74 1.21–5.17 | 5.52 2.53–8.51 1.72–9.33 | 28% 16% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.