Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.222.62safe0.44–2.370.36–2.070.80–4.44safer0.18–2.620.13–2.300.32–4.92
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.038.57safe2.68–6.412.29–5.774.97–12.18safer2.19–6.901.82–6.244.01–13.13
Total shots
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7312.8327.56safe10.80–18.659.27–16.3920.07–35.04safer9.71–19.748.31–17.3518.02–37.09
Shots in box
56%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction9.017.9116.92safe6.07–11.955.23–10.5911.30–22.55safer5.24–12.784.50–11.339.73–24.11
Blocked shots
45%
15%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.943.777.71safe2.06–5.822.12–5.424.18–11.25safer1.51–6.371.63–5.923.14–12.28
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.344.409.74safe3.13–7.562.40–6.405.53–13.95safer2.55–8.131.86–6.934.42–15.06
Possession %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction52.1849.31safe45.39–58.9742.52–56.09safer43.72–60.6440.85–57.76
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction469448917safe402–536381–514783–1050safer384–555364–532747–1086
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction67.6871.38safe63.65–71.7167.06–75.70safer62.36–73.0065.75–77.01
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3313.0724.40safe8.49–14.1710.13–16.0218.62–30.18safer7.74–14.939.38–16.7617.12–31.69
Offsides
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.081.913.98safe0.92–3.240.82–3.001.73–6.24safer0.61–3.540.53–3.291.14–6.83
Yellow cards
33%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.762.133.89safe0.71–2.811.00–3.251.71–6.06safer0.44–3.070.71–3.551.15–6.62
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.120.18safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.440.00–0.81
GK saves
34%
16%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.793.316.10safe1.35–4.221.75–4.873.11–9.09safer0.96–4.611.33–5.292.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.44–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.62 0.80–4.44 0.32–4.92 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.55 2.68–6.41 2.19–6.90 | 4.03 2.29–5.77 1.82–6.24 | 8.57 4.97–12.18 4.01–13.13 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 14.73 10.80–18.65 9.71–19.74 | 12.83 9.27–16.39 8.31–17.35 | 27.56 20.07–35.04 18.02–37.09 | 60% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.01 6.07–11.95 5.24–12.78 | 7.91 5.23–10.59 4.50–11.33 | 16.92 11.30–22.55 9.73–24.11 | 56% 35% |
| Blocked shots | 3.94 2.06–5.82 1.51–6.37 | 3.77 2.12–5.42 1.63–5.92 | 7.71 4.18–11.25 3.14–12.28 | 45% 15% 40% |
| Corners | 5.34 3.13–7.56 2.55–8.13 | 4.40 2.40–6.40 1.86–6.93 | 9.74 5.53–13.95 4.42–15.06 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 52.18 45.39–58.97 43.72–60.64 | 49.31 42.52–56.09 40.85–57.76 | — | 54% 41% |
| Passes | 469 402–536 384–555 | 448 381–514 364–532 | 917 783–1050 747–1086 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.68 63.65–71.71 62.36–73.00 | 71.38 67.06–75.70 65.75–77.01 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 11.33 8.49–14.17 7.74–14.93 | 13.07 10.13–16.02 9.38–16.76 | 24.40 18.62–30.18 17.12–31.69 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 2.08 0.92–3.24 0.61–3.54 | 1.91 0.82–3.00 0.53–3.29 | 3.98 1.73–6.24 1.14–6.83 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.76 0.71–2.81 0.44–3.07 | 2.13 1.00–3.25 0.71–3.55 | 3.89 1.71–6.06 1.15–6.62 | 33% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.18 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.79 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 3.31 1.75–4.87 1.33–5.29 | 6.10 3.11–9.09 2.29–9.90 | 34% 16% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.