La Liga·Regular Season - 20·
La Liga·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
26%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.202.57safe0.41–2.340.34–2.050.75–4.40safer0.16–2.590.12–2.280.27–4.88
Shots on target
47%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.203.878.08safe2.34–6.062.13–5.624.47–11.68safer1.85–6.551.67–6.083.52–12.64
Total shots
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4812.3125.80safe9.56–17.418.75–15.8818.31–33.28safer8.47–18.507.79–16.8416.26–35.33
Shots in box
52%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction8.387.6816.06safe5.44–11.325.00–10.3610.44–21.68safer4.61–12.154.26–11.108.87–23.25
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.823.146.95safe1.93–5.701.49–4.793.42–10.49safer1.39–6.240.99–5.282.38–11.53
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.154.539.68safe2.93–7.362.53–6.535.47–13.90safer2.36–7.932.00–7.074.36–15.00
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction55.3045.31safe48.51–62.0938.52–52.09safer46.84–63.7636.85–53.76
Passes
86%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction495363857safe427–562296–429724–991safer409–580279–447688–1027
Pass accuracy %
50%
44%
homeawayprediction67.2966.70safe63.26–71.3262.37–71.02safer61.96–72.6161.06–72.33
Fouls
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction13.8112.4426.25safe10.97–16.659.49–15.3820.47–32.03safer10.22–17.408.75–16.1318.96–33.54
Offsides
41%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.813.69safe0.72–3.040.72–2.901.43–5.94safer0.42–3.340.43–3.190.84–6.53
Yellow cards
42%
20%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.044.21safe1.12–3.210.91–3.172.03–6.38safer0.85–3.480.62–3.461.47–6.94
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.582.715.29safe1.14–4.021.16–4.272.30–8.29safer0.76–4.400.73–4.691.49–9.10
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.38 0.41–2.34 0.16–2.59 | 1.20 0.34–2.05 0.12–2.28 | 2.57 0.75–4.40 0.27–4.88 | 41% 26% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.20 2.34–6.06 1.85–6.55 | 3.87 2.13–5.62 1.67–6.08 | 8.08 4.47–11.68 3.52–12.64 | 47% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 13.48 9.56–17.41 8.47–18.50 | 12.31 8.75–15.88 7.79–16.84 | 25.80 18.31–33.28 16.26–35.33 | 55% 37% |
| Shots in box | 8.38 5.44–11.32 4.61–12.15 | 7.68 5.00–10.36 4.26–11.10 | 16.06 10.44–21.68 8.87–23.25 | 52% 38% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 1.93–5.70 1.39–6.24 | 3.14 1.49–4.79 0.99–5.28 | 6.95 3.42–10.49 2.38–11.53 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.15 2.93–7.36 2.36–7.93 | 4.53 2.53–6.53 2.00–7.07 | 9.68 5.47–13.90 4.36–15.00 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 55.30 48.51–62.09 46.84–63.76 | 45.31 38.52–52.09 36.85–53.76 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 495 427–562 409–580 | 363 296–429 279–447 | 857 724–991 688–1027 | 86% 13% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.29 63.26–71.32 61.96–72.61 | 66.70 62.37–71.02 61.06–72.33 | — | 50% 44% |
| Fouls | 13.81 10.97–16.65 10.22–17.40 | 12.44 9.49–15.38 8.75–16.13 | 26.25 20.47–32.03 18.96–33.54 | 57% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.88 0.72–3.04 0.42–3.34 | 1.81 0.72–2.90 0.43–3.19 | 3.69 1.43–5.94 0.84–6.53 | 41% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.12–3.21 0.85–3.48 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 4.21 2.03–6.38 1.47–6.94 | 42% 20% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.58 1.14–4.02 0.76–4.40 | 2.71 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.69 | 5.29 2.30–8.29 1.49–9.10 | 39% 18% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.