La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
60%
22%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction1.950.962.91safe0.98–2.920.11–1.821.09–4.74safer0.73–3.170.00–2.050.61–5.22
Shots on target
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.603.388.98safe3.74–7.461.64–5.135.38–12.59safer3.25–7.951.18–5.594.42–13.54
Total shots
80%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction15.1210.4125.52safe11.19–19.046.84–13.9718.03–33.01safer10.10–20.135.88–14.9315.98–35.06
Shots in box
76%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction9.976.6316.60safe7.03–12.913.94–9.3110.97–22.22safer6.20–13.743.21–10.049.41–23.79
Blocked shots
74%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction4.432.306.73safe2.55–6.320.64–3.953.19–10.26safer2.01–6.860.15–4.442.16–11.30
Corners
69%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.753.739.48safe3.54–7.961.73–5.735.26–13.69safer2.96–8.541.19–6.264.15–14.80
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction62.9837.35safe56.19–69.7730.57–44.14safer54.52–71.4428.90–45.81
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction600324924safe533–667258–391791–1058safer515–686240–408755–1094
Pass accuracy %
81%
15%
homeawayprediction74.6867.31safe70.65–78.7162.99–71.63safer69.36–80.0061.68–72.94
Fouls
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6713.9526.61safe9.83–15.5111.00–16.8920.83–32.40safer9.08–16.2610.25–17.6419.33–33.90
Offsides
25%
18%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.614.32safe0.56–2.881.51–3.702.07–6.58safer0.25–3.181.22–3.991.48–7.16
Yellow cards
22%
18%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.684.31safe0.58–2.681.55–3.802.13–6.48safer0.31–2.951.25–4.101.57–7.04
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.130.20safe0.00–0.230.00–0.320.00–0.54safer0.00–0.380.00–0.450.00–0.83
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.363.475.83safe0.93–3.801.91–5.022.84–8.82safer0.54–4.191.49–5.452.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 0.98–2.92 0.73–3.17 | 0.96 0.11–1.82 0.00–2.05 | 2.91 1.09–4.74 0.61–5.22 | 60% 22% 18% |
| Shots on target | 5.60 3.74–7.46 3.25–7.95 | 3.38 1.64–5.13 1.18–5.59 | 8.98 5.38–12.59 4.42–13.54 | 72% 18% |
| Total shots | 15.12 11.19–19.04 10.10–20.13 | 10.41 6.84–13.97 5.88–14.93 | 25.52 18.03–33.01 15.98–35.06 | 80% 15% |
| Shots in box | 9.97 7.03–12.91 6.20–13.74 | 6.63 3.94–9.31 3.21–10.04 | 16.60 10.97–22.22 9.41–23.79 | 76% 17% |
| Blocked shots | 4.43 2.55–6.32 2.01–6.86 | 2.30 0.64–3.95 0.15–4.44 | 6.73 3.19–10.26 2.16–11.30 | 74% 15% |
| Corners | 5.75 3.54–7.96 2.96–8.54 | 3.73 1.73–5.73 1.19–6.26 | 9.48 5.26–13.69 4.15–14.80 | 69% 20% |
| Possession % | 62.98 56.19–69.77 54.52–71.44 | 37.35 30.57–44.14 28.90–45.81 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 600 533–667 515–686 | 324 258–391 240–408 | 924 791–1058 755–1094 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.68 70.65–78.71 69.36–80.00 | 67.31 62.99–71.63 61.68–72.94 | — | 81% 15% |
| Fouls | 12.67 9.83–15.51 9.08–16.26 | 13.95 11.00–16.89 10.25–17.64 | 26.61 20.83–32.40 19.33–33.90 | 37% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.72 0.56–2.88 0.25–3.18 | 2.61 1.51–3.70 1.22–3.99 | 4.32 2.07–6.58 1.48–7.16 | 25% 18% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 1.63 0.58–2.68 0.31–2.95 | 2.68 1.55–3.80 1.25–4.10 | 4.31 2.13–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 22% 18% 60% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.36 0.93–3.80 0.54–4.19 | 3.47 1.91–5.02 1.49–5.45 | 5.83 2.84–8.82 2.03–9.64 | 25% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.