La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
24%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.740.982.73safe0.77–2.710.13–1.840.90–4.55safer0.52–2.960.00–2.070.42–5.03
Shots on target
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.513.438.95safe3.65–7.371.69–5.185.34–12.55safer3.16–7.861.23–5.644.39–13.51
Total shots
77%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction14.8810.6225.50safe10.95–18.807.06–14.1818.01–32.98safer9.86–19.896.10–15.1415.96–35.03
Shots in box
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction9.876.0315.91safe6.93–12.813.35–8.7210.28–21.53safer6.10–13.642.62–9.458.72–23.10
Blocked shots
60%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.992.836.82safe2.11–5.881.18–4.483.29–10.36safer1.57–6.420.69–4.982.25–11.40
Corners
61%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.714.3510.05safe3.49–7.922.35–6.355.84–14.27safer2.92–8.491.81–6.884.73–15.37
Possession %
67%
29%
homeawayprediction54.5146.07safe47.72–61.3039.29–52.86safer46.05–62.9737.62–54.53
Passes
73%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction525451976safe458–593384–517842–1110safer440–611367–535807–1145
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction72.0371.04safe68.00–76.0666.72–75.36safer66.71–77.3565.41–76.67
Fouls
34%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5913.1124.70safe8.76–14.4310.16–16.0518.92–30.48safer8.00–15.199.41–16.8017.41–31.99
Offsides
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.563.51safe0.79–3.110.47–2.651.26–5.76safer0.49–3.410.18–2.940.67–6.35
Yellow cards
26%
20%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.343.94safe0.55–2.651.22–3.471.76–6.12safer0.28–2.910.92–3.761.20–6.68
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.476.12safe1.21–4.091.91–5.023.13–9.11safer0.83–4.471.49–5.452.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.74 0.77–2.71 0.52–2.96 | 0.98 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.73 0.90–4.55 0.42–5.03 | 55% 24% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.51 3.65–7.37 3.16–7.86 | 3.43 1.69–5.18 1.23–5.64 | 8.95 5.34–12.55 4.39–13.51 | 70% 19% |
| Total shots | 14.88 10.95–18.80 9.86–19.89 | 10.62 7.06–14.18 6.10–15.14 | 25.50 18.01–32.98 15.96–35.03 | 77% 17% |
| Shots in box | 9.87 6.93–12.81 6.10–13.64 | 6.03 3.35–8.72 2.62–9.45 | 15.91 10.28–21.53 8.72–23.10 | 80% 14% |
| Blocked shots | 3.99 2.11–5.88 1.57–6.42 | 2.83 1.18–4.48 0.69–4.98 | 6.82 3.29–10.36 2.25–11.40 | 60% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.49–7.92 2.92–8.49 | 4.35 2.35–6.35 1.81–6.88 | 10.05 5.84–14.27 4.73–15.37 | 61% 28% |
| Possession % | 54.51 47.72–61.30 46.05–62.97 | 46.07 39.29–52.86 37.62–54.53 | — | 67% 29% |
| Passes | 525 458–593 440–611 | 451 384–517 367–535 | 976 842–1110 807–1145 | 73% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.03 68.00–76.06 66.71–77.35 | 71.04 66.72–75.36 65.41–76.67 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 11.59 8.76–14.43 8.00–15.19 | 13.11 10.16–16.05 9.41–16.80 | 24.70 18.92–30.48 17.41–31.99 | 34% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.79–3.11 0.49–3.41 | 1.56 0.47–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.51 1.26–5.76 0.67–6.35 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.60 0.55–2.65 0.28–2.91 | 2.34 1.22–3.47 0.92–3.76 | 3.94 1.76–6.12 1.20–6.68 | 26% 20% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.21–4.09 0.83–4.47 | 3.47 1.91–5.02 1.49–5.45 | 6.12 3.13–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.