La Liga·Regular Season - 23·
La Liga·Regular Season - 23·Predicted match statistics
Goals
13%
16%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction1.122.723.85safe0.16–2.091.87–3.582.03–5.67safer0.00–2.341.64–3.811.55–6.15
Shots on target
16%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction4.026.7410.76safe2.16–5.884.99–8.487.15–14.36safer1.67–6.374.53–8.946.20–15.32
Total shots
26%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2316.2529.48safe9.31–17.1612.69–19.8122.00–36.97safer8.22–18.2511.73–20.7719.94–39.02
Shots in box
14%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction7.8112.0719.89safe4.87–10.759.39–14.7514.26–25.51safer4.04–11.588.66–15.4912.70–27.08
Blocked shots
34%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.034.768.79safe2.15–5.913.11–6.415.25–12.32safer1.60–6.462.61–6.904.22–13.36
Corners
31%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.905.9910.90safe2.69–7.123.99–7.996.68–15.11safer2.12–7.693.46–8.535.58–16.22
Possession %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction44.9456.95safe38.15–51.7350.17–63.74safer36.48–53.4048.50–65.41
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction437547984safe370–505481–613851–1118safer352–523463–631815–1154
Pass accuracy %
92%
homeawayprediction62.7274.24safe58.69–66.7569.91–78.56safer57.40–68.0468.60–79.87
Fouls
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction12.389.8622.23safe9.54–15.216.91–12.8016.45–28.01safer8.78–15.976.16–13.5514.95–29.52
Offsides
28%
21%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.602.183.78safe0.44–2.761.09–3.271.53–6.04safer0.14–3.070.80–3.560.94–6.63
Yellow cards
43%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.793.77safe0.93–3.030.66–2.921.59–5.95safer0.67–3.300.37–3.211.03–6.51
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.090.21safe0.00–0.280.00–0.280.00–0.56safer0.00–0.430.00–0.410.00–0.84
GK saves
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.072.987.05safe2.63–5.511.43–4.544.06–10.05safer2.25–5.891.00–4.963.25–10.86
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.12 0.16–2.09 0.00–2.34 | 2.72 1.87–3.58 1.64–3.81 | 3.85 2.03–5.67 1.55–6.15 | 13% 16% 71% |
| Shots on target | 4.02 2.16–5.88 1.67–6.37 | 6.74 4.99–8.48 4.53–8.94 | 10.76 7.15–14.36 6.20–15.32 | 16% 75% |
| Total shots | 13.23 9.31–17.16 8.22–18.25 | 16.25 12.69–19.81 11.73–20.77 | 29.48 22.00–36.97 19.94–39.02 | 26% 68% |
| Shots in box | 7.81 4.87–10.75 4.04–11.58 | 12.07 9.39–14.75 8.66–15.49 | 19.89 14.26–25.51 12.70–27.08 | 14% 80% |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 2.15–5.91 1.60–6.46 | 4.76 3.11–6.41 2.61–6.90 | 8.79 5.25–12.32 4.22–13.36 | 34% 13% 53% |
| Corners | 4.90 2.69–7.12 2.12–7.69 | 5.99 3.99–7.99 3.46–8.53 | 10.90 6.68–15.11 5.58–16.22 | 31% 57% |
| Possession % | 44.94 38.15–51.73 36.48–53.40 | 56.95 50.17–63.74 48.50–65.41 | — | 22% 74% |
| Passes | 437 370–505 352–523 | 547 481–613 463–631 | 984 851–1118 815–1154 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.72 58.69–66.75 57.40–68.04 | 74.24 69.91–78.56 68.60–79.87 | — | 92% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.54–15.21 8.78–15.97 | 9.86 6.91–12.80 6.16–13.55 | 22.23 16.45–28.01 14.95–29.52 | 67% 26% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.07 | 2.18 1.09–3.27 0.80–3.56 | 3.78 1.53–6.04 0.94–6.63 | 28% 21% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 1.98 0.93–3.03 0.67–3.30 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.77 1.59–5.95 1.03–6.51 | 43% 21% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 4.07 2.63–5.51 2.25–5.89 | 2.98 1.43–4.54 1.00–4.96 | 7.05 4.06–10.05 3.25–10.86 | 59% 14% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.