La Liga·Regular Season - 24·
La Liga·Regular Season - 24·Predicted match statistics
Goals
24%
22%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.973.20safe0.26–2.201.11–2.821.37–5.02safer0.01–2.450.89–3.050.89–5.50
Shots on target
30%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction4.375.479.84safe2.51–6.233.73–7.226.24–13.45safer2.02–6.723.27–7.685.28–14.40
Total shots
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2714.8228.08safe9.34–17.1911.26–18.3820.60–35.57safer8.25–18.2810.30–19.3418.55–37.62
Shots in box
31%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction8.4110.0318.44safe5.47–11.357.35–12.7112.82–24.07safer4.64–12.186.61–13.4511.25–25.63
Blocked shots
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.684.448.12safe1.80–5.562.79–6.094.58–11.66safer1.26–6.112.29–6.583.55–12.69
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.305.2610.55safe3.08–7.513.26–7.266.34–14.77safer2.51–8.082.73–7.795.23–15.87
Possession %
22%
75%
homeawayprediction44.7556.93safe37.96–51.5450.14–63.71safer36.29–53.2148.47–65.39
Passes
18%
82%
homeawaytotalprediction432543976safe365–499477–610842–1109safer347–518459–627806–1145
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction62.3574.13safe58.32–66.3869.80–78.45safer57.02–67.6768.49–79.76
Fouls
58%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5410.1421.68safe8.70–14.387.20–13.0915.90–27.47safer7.95–15.136.45–13.8414.40–28.97
Offsides
55%
18%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.641.864.49safe1.48–3.800.76–2.952.24–6.75safer1.18–4.100.48–3.241.65–7.34
Yellow cards
46%
21%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.071.753.82safe1.02–3.120.62–2.881.64–6.00safer0.76–3.390.33–3.171.08–6.55
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.743.106.84safe2.31–5.181.54–4.653.85–9.83safer1.92–5.571.12–5.083.03–10.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.97 1.11–2.82 0.89–3.05 | 3.20 1.37–5.02 0.89–5.50 | 24% 22% 55% |
| Shots on target | 4.37 2.51–6.23 2.02–6.72 | 5.47 3.73–7.22 3.27–7.68 | 9.84 6.24–13.45 5.28–14.40 | 30% 58% |
| Total shots | 13.27 9.34–17.19 8.25–18.28 | 14.82 11.26–18.38 10.30–19.34 | 28.08 20.60–35.57 18.55–37.62 | 35% 58% |
| Shots in box | 8.41 5.47–11.35 4.64–12.18 | 10.03 7.35–12.71 6.61–13.45 | 18.44 12.82–24.07 11.25–25.63 | 31% 60% |
| Blocked shots | 3.68 1.80–5.56 1.26–6.11 | 4.44 2.79–6.09 2.29–6.58 | 8.12 4.58–11.66 3.55–12.69 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.08–7.51 2.51–8.08 | 5.26 3.26–7.26 2.73–7.79 | 10.55 6.34–14.77 5.23–15.87 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 44.75 37.96–51.54 36.29–53.21 | 56.93 50.14–63.71 48.47–65.39 | — | 22% 75% |
| Passes | 432 365–499 347–518 | 543 477–610 459–627 | 976 842–1109 806–1145 | 18% 82% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.35 58.32–66.38 57.02–67.67 | 74.13 69.80–78.45 68.49–79.76 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.70–14.38 7.95–15.13 | 10.14 7.20–13.09 6.45–13.84 | 21.68 15.90–27.47 14.40–28.97 | 58% 34% |
| Offsides | 2.64 1.48–3.80 1.18–4.10 | 1.86 0.76–2.95 0.48–3.24 | 4.49 2.24–6.75 1.65–7.34 | 55% 18% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.76–3.39 | 1.75 0.62–2.88 0.33–3.17 | 3.82 1.64–6.00 1.08–6.55 | 46% 21% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.74 2.31–5.18 1.92–5.57 | 3.10 1.54–4.65 1.12–5.08 | 6.84 3.85–9.83 3.03–10.64 | 52% 15% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+