La Liga·Regular Season - 26·
La Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
16%
19%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.042.293.33safe0.07–2.011.43–3.141.51–5.15safer0.00–2.261.20–3.371.03–5.63
Shots on target
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction3.956.5510.50safe2.09–5.824.80–8.296.89–14.10safer1.60–6.314.34–8.755.94–15.06
Total shots
90%
homeawaytotalprediction9.9016.9026.80safe5.97–13.8213.34–20.4719.31–34.29safer4.88–14.9112.38–21.4317.26–36.34
Shots in box
84%
homeawaytotalprediction6.8511.5718.43safe3.91–9.808.89–14.2512.80–24.05safer3.08–10.638.15–14.9911.24–25.62
Blocked shots
18%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction2.614.527.14safe0.73–4.502.87–6.183.60–10.67safer0.19–5.042.38–6.672.57–11.71
Corners
21%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction4.006.0710.07safe1.79–6.214.07–8.075.85–14.28safer1.21–6.793.54–8.604.75–15.39
Possession %
99%
homeawayprediction31.2269.37safe24.43–38.0162.59–76.16safer22.76–39.6860.92–77.83
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction3346891023safe267–401623–756890–1157safer249–419605–773854–1193
Pass accuracy %
100%
homeawayprediction64.4784.95safe60.44–68.5080.63–89.28safer59.15–69.7979.32–90.59
Fouls
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction11.429.5220.94safe8.58–14.266.57–12.4615.15–26.72safer7.83–15.015.82–13.2113.65–28.22
Offsides
48%
15%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.703.306.99safe2.54–4.862.20–4.394.74–9.25safer2.24–5.161.92–4.684.15–9.84
Yellow cards
47%
22%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.533.45safe0.87–2.970.40–2.661.27–5.63safer0.60–3.240.11–2.950.71–6.18
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.070.16safe0.00–0.250.00–0.250.00–0.50safer0.00–0.400.00–0.390.00–0.79
GK saves
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.282.686.95safe2.84–5.711.12–4.233.96–9.94safer2.45–6.100.70–4.663.15–10.76
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 2.29 1.43–3.14 1.20–3.37 | 3.33 1.51–5.15 1.03–5.63 | 16% 19% 65% |
| Shots on target | 3.95 2.09–5.82 1.60–6.31 | 6.55 4.80–8.29 4.34–8.75 | 10.50 6.89–14.10 5.94–15.06 | 17% 74% |
| Total shots | 9.90 5.97–13.82 4.88–14.91 | 16.90 13.34–20.47 12.38–21.43 | 26.80 19.31–34.29 17.26–36.34 | 90% |
| Shots in box | 6.85 3.91–9.80 3.08–10.63 | 11.57 8.89–14.25 8.15–14.99 | 18.43 12.80–24.05 11.24–25.62 | 84% |
| Blocked shots | 2.61 0.73–4.50 0.19–5.04 | 4.52 2.87–6.18 2.38–6.67 | 7.14 3.60–10.67 2.57–11.71 | 18% 70% |
| Corners | 4.00 1.79–6.21 1.21–6.79 | 6.07 4.07–8.07 3.54–8.60 | 10.07 5.85–14.28 4.75–15.39 | 21% 69% |
| Possession % | 31.22 24.43–38.01 22.76–39.68 | 69.37 62.59–76.16 60.92–77.83 | — | 99% |
| Passes | 334 267–401 249–419 | 689 623–756 605–773 | 1023 890–1157 854–1193 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.47 60.44–68.50 59.15–69.79 | 84.95 80.63–89.28 79.32–90.59 | — | 100% |
| Fouls | 11.42 8.58–14.26 7.83–15.01 | 9.52 6.57–12.46 5.82–13.21 | 20.94 15.15–26.72 13.65–28.22 | 62% 30% |
| Offsides | 3.70 2.54–4.86 2.24–5.16 | 3.30 2.20–4.39 1.92–4.68 | 6.99 4.74–9.25 4.15–9.84 | 48% 15% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.92 0.87–2.97 0.60–3.24 | 1.53 0.40–2.66 0.11–2.95 | 3.45 1.27–5.63 0.71–6.18 | 47% 22% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.07 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.39 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 4.28 2.84–5.71 2.45–6.10 | 2.68 1.12–4.23 0.70–4.66 | 6.95 3.96–9.94 3.15–10.76 | 66% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.