La Liga·Regular Season - 26·
La Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.411.112.53safe0.45–2.380.26–1.970.71–4.35safer0.19–2.630.03–2.200.23–4.83
Shots on target
58%
13%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.693.598.28safe2.83–6.551.85–5.334.68–11.89safer2.34–7.041.38–5.803.72–12.84
Total shots
71%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4511.1325.57safe10.52–18.377.57–14.6918.09–33.06safer9.43–19.466.61–15.6516.04–35.11
Shots in box
60%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.476.9315.41safe5.53–11.414.25–9.619.78–21.03safer4.70–12.243.52–10.358.22–22.60
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.163.297.45safe2.28–6.051.64–4.943.92–10.99safer1.74–6.591.14–5.442.88–12.02
Corners
59%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.224.009.22safe3.01–7.442.00–6.005.01–13.43safer2.44–8.011.47–6.533.90–14.54
Possession %
74%
22%
homeawayprediction56.1144.17safe49.32–62.9037.38–50.95safer47.65–64.5735.71–52.63
Passes
84%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction503384887safe436–570318–451754–1021safer418–588300–468718–1057
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction70.9169.07safe66.88–74.9464.75–73.40safer65.59–76.2363.44–74.71
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8612.9724.83safe9.02–14.7010.03–15.9219.05–30.62safer8.27–15.459.28–16.6717.55–32.12
Offsides
42%
24%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.403.00safe0.44–2.760.31–2.490.74–5.25safer0.14–3.060.02–2.780.15–5.84
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.952.204.15safe0.90–3.001.07–3.331.97–6.32safer0.63–3.260.78–3.621.41–6.88
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
32%
17%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.503.095.58safe1.06–3.931.53–4.642.59–8.58safer0.67–4.321.11–5.071.78–9.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.41 0.45–2.38 0.19–2.63 | 1.11 0.26–1.97 0.03–2.20 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 44% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.69 2.83–6.55 2.34–7.04 | 3.59 1.85–5.33 1.38–5.80 | 8.28 4.68–11.89 3.72–12.84 | 58% 13% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.45 10.52–18.37 9.43–19.46 | 11.13 7.57–14.69 6.61–15.65 | 25.57 18.09–33.06 16.04–35.11 | 71% 22% |
| Shots in box | 8.47 5.53–11.41 4.70–12.24 | 6.93 4.25–9.61 3.52–10.35 | 15.41 9.78–21.03 8.22–22.60 | 60% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 4.16 2.28–6.05 1.74–6.59 | 3.29 1.64–4.94 1.14–5.44 | 7.45 3.92–10.99 2.88–12.02 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.22 3.01–7.44 2.44–8.01 | 4.00 2.00–6.00 1.47–6.53 | 9.22 5.01–13.43 3.90–14.54 | 59% 28% |
| Possession % | 56.11 49.32–62.90 47.65–64.57 | 44.17 37.38–50.95 35.71–52.63 | — | 74% 22% |
| Passes | 503 436–570 418–588 | 384 318–451 300–468 | 887 754–1021 718–1057 | 84% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.91 66.88–74.94 65.59–76.23 | 69.07 64.75–73.40 63.44–74.71 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 11.86 9.02–14.70 8.27–15.45 | 12.97 10.03–15.92 9.28–16.67 | 24.83 19.05–30.62 17.55–32.12 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.76 0.14–3.06 | 1.40 0.31–2.49 0.02–2.78 | 3.00 0.74–5.25 0.15–5.84 | 42% 24% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.95 0.90–3.00 0.63–3.26 | 2.20 1.07–3.33 0.78–3.62 | 4.15 1.97–6.32 1.41–6.88 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.50 1.06–3.93 0.67–4.32 | 3.09 1.53–4.64 1.11–5.07 | 5.58 2.59–8.58 1.78–9.39 | 32% 17% 51% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.