La Liga·Regular Season - 26·
La Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
23%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.753.09safe0.37–2.300.90–2.611.26–4.91safer0.12–2.550.67–2.830.78–5.39
Shots on target
28%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction4.435.8210.24safe2.56–6.294.08–7.566.64–13.85safer2.07–6.783.61–8.035.68–14.81
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2317.5229.75safe8.31–16.1513.96–21.0822.26–37.24safer7.21–17.2513.00–22.0420.21–39.29
Shots in box
28%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction8.3710.3318.70safe5.43–11.327.65–13.0113.08–24.33safer4.60–12.156.91–13.7511.51–25.89
Blocked shots
34%
14%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction3.634.307.93safe1.75–5.512.65–5.964.40–11.47safer1.20–6.052.16–6.453.36–12.50
Corners
36%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction5.085.7710.85safe2.87–7.303.77–7.776.64–15.07safer2.30–7.873.24–8.305.53–16.17
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.8151.23safe42.02–55.6044.44–58.01safer40.35–57.2742.77–59.68
Passes
47%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction443453897safe376–511387–520763–1030safer358–529369–537727–1066
Pass accuracy %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction64.8170.53safe60.78–68.8466.21–74.86safer59.49–70.1364.90–76.17
Fouls
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.6813.4125.09safe8.84–14.5110.47–16.3619.30–30.87safer8.08–15.279.72–17.1017.80–32.37
Offsides
26%
18%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.614.39safe0.61–2.931.52–3.712.13–6.64safer0.31–3.231.23–4.001.54–7.23
Yellow cards
34%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.002.354.35safe0.95–3.051.22–3.482.17–6.52safer0.68–3.310.93–3.771.61–7.08
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.100.23safe0.00–0.290.00–0.290.00–0.58safer0.00–0.440.00–0.420.00–0.86
GK saves
61%
14%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction3.862.646.50safe2.43–5.301.08–4.193.51–9.49safer2.04–5.690.66–4.622.70–10.30
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.30 0.12–2.55 | 1.75 0.90–2.61 0.67–2.83 | 3.09 1.26–4.91 0.78–5.39 | 29% 23% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.43 2.56–6.29 2.07–6.78 | 5.82 4.08–7.56 3.61–8.03 | 10.24 6.64–13.85 5.68–14.81 | 28% 61% |
| Total shots | 12.23 8.31–16.15 7.21–17.25 | 17.52 13.96–21.08 13.00–22.04 | 29.75 22.26–37.24 20.21–39.29 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 8.37 5.43–11.32 4.60–12.15 | 10.33 7.65–13.01 6.91–13.75 | 18.70 13.08–24.33 11.51–25.89 | 28% 63% |
| Blocked shots | 3.63 1.75–5.51 1.20–6.05 | 4.30 2.65–5.96 2.16–6.45 | 7.93 4.40–11.47 3.36–12.50 | 34% 14% 52% |
| Corners | 5.08 2.87–7.30 2.30–7.87 | 5.77 3.77–7.77 3.24–8.30 | 10.85 6.64–15.07 5.53–16.17 | 36% 52% |
| Possession % | 48.81 42.02–55.60 40.35–57.27 | 51.23 44.44–58.01 42.77–59.68 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 443 376–511 358–529 | 453 387–520 369–537 | 897 763–1030 727–1066 | 47% 53% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.81 60.78–68.84 59.49–70.13 | 70.53 66.21–74.86 64.90–76.17 | — | 21% 75% |
| Fouls | 11.68 8.84–14.51 8.08–15.27 | 13.41 10.47–16.36 9.72–17.10 | 25.09 19.30–30.87 17.80–32.37 | 33% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 2.61 1.52–3.71 1.23–4.00 | 4.39 2.13–6.64 1.54–7.23 | 26% 18% 56% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.31 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.35 2.17–6.52 1.61–7.08 | 34% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.86 2.43–5.30 2.04–5.69 | 2.64 1.08–4.19 0.66–4.62 | 6.50 3.51–9.49 2.70–10.30 | 61% 14% 25% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+