La Liga·Regular Season - 26·
La Liga·Regular Season - 26·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.212.96safe0.79–2.720.35–2.061.14–4.79safer0.54–2.980.12–2.290.66–5.27
Shots on target
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.713.919.63safe3.85–7.572.17–5.666.02–13.23safer3.36–8.061.71–6.125.07–14.19
Total shots
72%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0011.4426.44safe11.08–18.937.88–15.0018.95–33.93safer9.99–20.026.92–15.9616.90–35.98
Shots in box
71%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction10.227.3617.58safe7.28–13.174.68–10.0411.96–23.20safer6.45–14.003.94–10.7810.39–24.77
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.273.187.45safe2.39–6.151.53–4.843.91–10.99safer1.84–6.691.04–5.332.88–12.02
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction6.004.0810.08safe3.79–8.222.08–6.085.87–14.29safer3.22–8.791.54–6.614.76–15.40
Possession %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction50.8350.20safe44.04–57.6243.42–56.99safer42.37–59.2941.75–58.66
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction484464948safe417–552397–530814–1082safer399–570380–548779–1117
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction63.2670.39safe59.23–67.2966.07–74.71safer57.94–68.5864.76–76.02
Fouls
41%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9112.5124.41safe9.07–14.749.56–15.4518.63–30.19safer8.31–15.508.81–16.2017.12–31.70
Offsides
59%
17%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.021.985.00safe1.86–4.180.89–3.072.75–7.26safer1.56–4.480.60–3.362.16–7.85
Yellow cards
33%
20%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.912.324.23safe0.86–2.961.19–3.452.05–6.41safer0.60–3.230.90–3.741.50–6.97
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.23safe0.00–0.250.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
26%
15%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.746.36safe1.19–4.062.18–5.303.37–9.36safer0.80–4.451.76–5.722.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.76 0.79–2.72 0.54–2.98 | 1.21 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.29 | 2.96 1.14–4.79 0.66–5.27 | 50% 23% 26% |
| Shots on target | 5.71 3.85–7.57 3.36–8.06 | 3.91 2.17–5.66 1.71–6.12 | 9.63 6.02–13.23 5.07–14.19 | 66% 23% |
| Total shots | 15.00 11.08–18.93 9.99–20.02 | 11.44 7.88–15.00 6.92–15.96 | 26.44 18.95–33.93 16.90–35.98 | 72% 21% |
| Shots in box | 10.22 7.28–13.17 6.45–14.00 | 7.36 4.68–10.04 3.94–10.78 | 17.58 11.96–23.20 10.39–24.77 | 71% 21% |
| Blocked shots | 4.27 2.39–6.15 1.84–6.69 | 3.18 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 7.45 3.91–10.99 2.88–12.02 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 6.00 3.79–8.22 3.22–8.79 | 4.08 2.08–6.08 1.54–6.61 | 10.08 5.87–14.29 4.76–15.40 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 50.83 44.04–57.62 42.37–59.29 | 50.20 43.42–56.99 41.75–58.66 | — | 49% 46% |
| Passes | 484 417–552 399–570 | 464 397–530 380–548 | 948 814–1082 779–1117 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.26 59.23–67.29 57.94–68.58 | 70.39 66.07–74.71 64.76–76.02 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 11.91 9.07–14.74 8.31–15.50 | 12.51 9.56–15.45 8.81–16.20 | 24.41 18.63–30.19 17.12–31.70 | 41% 51% |
| Offsides | 3.02 1.86–4.18 1.56–4.48 | 1.98 0.89–3.07 0.60–3.36 | 5.00 2.75–7.26 2.16–7.85 | 59% 17% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.60–3.23 | 2.32 1.19–3.45 0.90–3.74 | 4.23 2.05–6.41 1.50–6.97 | 33% 20% 48% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 3.74 2.18–5.30 1.76–5.72 | 6.36 3.37–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 26% 15% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+