La Liga·Regular Season - 27·
La Liga·Regular Season - 27·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
27%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.152.45safe0.34–2.280.29–2.000.63–4.28safer0.09–2.530.06–2.230.15–4.76
Shots on target
54%
14%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction4.563.748.30safe2.69–6.422.00–5.484.69–11.90safer2.20–6.911.53–5.953.74–12.86
Total shots
79%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2210.6025.82safe11.29–19.147.04–14.1618.33–33.31safer10.20–20.246.08–15.1216.28–35.36
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction9.206.7115.91safe6.26–12.144.03–9.3910.28–21.53safer5.43–12.973.29–10.138.72–23.10
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.743.437.17safe1.85–5.621.78–5.083.63–10.70safer1.31–6.161.28–5.572.59–11.74
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.459.73safe3.06–7.492.45–6.455.51–13.94safer2.49–8.061.92–6.984.40–15.05
Possession %
35%
60%
homeawayprediction47.2452.68safe40.45–54.0345.89–59.46safer38.78–55.7044.22–61.13
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction407432839safe340–474365–498705–972safer322–492348–516669–1008
Pass accuracy %
23%
73%
homeawayprediction63.3868.67safe59.35–67.4164.34–72.99safer58.06–68.7063.03–74.30
Fouls
27%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4514.1225.57safe8.62–14.2911.17–17.0619.79–31.35safer7.86–15.0510.42–17.8118.28–32.86
Offsides
44%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.763.77safe0.85–3.170.67–2.851.52–6.03safer0.55–3.470.38–3.140.93–6.61
Yellow cards
33%
20%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.354.30safe0.91–3.011.22–3.482.12–6.48safer0.64–3.270.93–3.771.57–7.04
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.523.315.82safe1.08–3.951.75–4.862.83–8.81safer0.69–4.341.33–5.292.02–9.63
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.15 0.29–2.00 0.06–2.23 | 2.45 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 40% 27% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.56 2.69–6.42 2.20–6.91 | 3.74 2.00–5.48 1.53–5.95 | 8.30 4.69–11.90 3.74–12.86 | 54% 14% 32% |
| Total shots | 15.22 11.29–19.14 10.20–20.24 | 10.60 7.04–14.16 6.08–15.12 | 25.82 18.33–33.31 16.28–35.36 | 79% 16% |
| Shots in box | 9.20 6.26–12.14 5.43–12.97 | 6.71 4.03–9.39 3.29–10.13 | 15.91 10.28–21.53 8.72–23.10 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.85–5.62 1.31–6.16 | 3.43 1.78–5.08 1.28–5.57 | 7.17 3.63–10.70 2.59–11.74 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.06–7.49 2.49–8.06 | 4.45 2.45–6.45 1.92–6.98 | 9.73 5.51–13.94 4.40–15.05 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 47.24 40.45–54.03 38.78–55.70 | 52.68 45.89–59.46 44.22–61.13 | — | 35% 60% |
| Passes | 407 340–474 322–492 | 432 365–498 348–516 | 839 705–972 669–1008 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.38 59.35–67.41 58.06–68.70 | 68.67 64.34–72.99 63.03–74.30 | — | 23% 73% |
| Fouls | 11.45 8.62–14.29 7.86–15.05 | 14.12 11.17–17.06 10.42–17.81 | 25.57 19.79–31.35 18.28–32.86 | 27% 67% |
| Offsides | 2.01 0.85–3.17 0.55–3.47 | 1.76 0.67–2.85 0.38–3.14 | 3.77 1.52–6.03 0.93–6.61 | 44% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.64–3.27 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 33% 20% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.52 1.08–3.95 0.69–4.34 | 3.31 1.75–4.86 1.33–5.29 | 5.82 2.83–8.81 2.02–9.63 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+