La Liga·Regular Season - 28·
La Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
25%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.592.78safe0.22–2.150.74–2.450.96–4.60safer0.00–2.400.51–2.680.48–5.08
Shots on target
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.485.339.81safe2.62–6.343.59–7.086.21–13.42safer2.13–6.833.13–7.545.25–14.37
Total shots
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3415.1628.50safe9.42–17.2711.60–18.7221.02–35.99safer8.33–18.3610.64–19.6818.97–38.04
Shots in box
35%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.409.4817.88safe5.46–11.346.79–12.1612.25–23.50safer4.63–12.176.06–12.8910.69–25.07
Blocked shots
36%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.724.187.91safe1.84–5.602.53–5.844.37–11.44safer1.30–6.152.04–6.333.33–12.48
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.715.1210.83safe3.49–7.923.12–7.126.61–15.04safer2.92–8.492.59–7.655.51–16.15
Possession %
48%
47%
homeawayprediction49.7649.61safe42.97–56.5542.82–56.39safer41.30–58.2241.15–58.06
Passes
55%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction456441896safe388–523374–507763–1030safer370–541357–525727–1066
Pass accuracy %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction66.2869.50safe62.25–70.3165.17–73.82safer60.95–71.6063.86–75.13
Fouls
47%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1412.0524.19safe9.30–14.979.11–15.0018.41–29.97safer8.54–15.738.36–15.7516.90–31.48
Offsides
41%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.891.823.71safe0.73–3.050.73–2.911.45–5.96safer0.43–3.350.44–3.200.86–6.55
Yellow cards
40%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.074.14safe1.02–3.120.94–3.201.97–6.32safer0.76–3.390.65–3.491.41–6.88
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.22safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.57safer0.00–0.430.00–0.430.00–0.85
GK saves
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.343.066.41safe1.91–4.781.51–4.623.41–9.40safer1.52–5.171.08–5.042.60–10.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.59 0.74–2.45 0.51–2.68 | 2.78 0.96–4.60 0.48–5.08 | 28% 25% 47% |
| Shots on target | 4.48 2.62–6.34 2.13–6.83 | 5.33 3.59–7.08 3.13–7.54 | 9.81 6.21–13.42 5.25–14.37 | 33% 54% |
| Total shots | 13.34 9.42–17.27 8.33–18.36 | 15.16 11.60–18.72 10.64–19.68 | 28.50 21.02–35.99 18.97–38.04 | 33% 60% |
| Shots in box | 8.40 5.46–11.34 4.63–12.17 | 9.48 6.79–12.16 6.06–12.89 | 17.88 12.25–23.50 10.69–25.07 | 35% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.72 1.84–5.60 1.30–6.15 | 4.18 2.53–5.84 2.04–6.33 | 7.91 4.37–11.44 3.33–12.48 | 36% 14% 49% |
| Corners | 5.71 3.49–7.92 2.92–8.49 | 5.12 3.12–7.12 2.59–7.65 | 10.83 6.61–15.04 5.51–16.15 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 49.76 42.97–56.55 41.30–58.22 | 49.61 42.82–56.39 41.15–58.06 | — | 48% 47% |
| Passes | 456 388–523 370–541 | 441 374–507 357–525 | 896 763–1030 727–1066 | 55% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.28 62.25–70.31 60.95–71.60 | 69.50 65.17–73.82 63.86–75.13 | — | 32% 64% |
| Fouls | 12.14 9.30–14.97 8.54–15.73 | 12.05 9.11–15.00 8.36–15.75 | 24.19 18.41–29.97 16.90–31.48 | 47% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.89 0.73–3.05 0.43–3.35 | 1.82 0.73–2.91 0.44–3.20 | 3.71 1.45–5.96 0.86–6.55 | 41% 22% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.76–3.39 | 2.07 0.94–3.20 0.65–3.49 | 4.14 1.97–6.32 1.41–6.88 | 40% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.34 1.91–4.78 1.52–5.17 | 3.06 1.51–4.62 1.08–5.04 | 6.41 3.41–9.40 2.60–10.21 | 46% 16% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+