La Liga·Regular Season - 28·
La Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
26%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.031.512.54safe0.06–2.000.66–2.370.72–4.36safer0.00–2.250.43–2.590.24–4.84
Shots on target
26%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.504.838.33safe1.64–5.373.09–6.574.73–11.94safer1.15–5.862.62–7.043.77–12.89
Total shots
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5312.9623.50safe6.61–14.469.40–16.5316.01–30.98safer5.52–15.558.44–17.4813.96–33.04
Shots in box
32%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction6.738.0214.75safe3.79–9.675.34–10.709.13–20.38safer2.96–10.504.60–11.447.56–21.94
Blocked shots
38%
16%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.526.74safe1.34–5.101.87–5.173.20–10.28safer0.80–5.651.37–5.662.17–11.31
Corners
36%
13%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.214.758.95safe1.99–6.422.75–6.754.74–13.17safer1.42–6.992.21–7.283.63–14.27
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.4757.33safe36.68–50.2650.54–64.11safer35.01–51.9348.87–65.78
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction386499886safe319–453433–566752–1019safer301–472415–583716–1055
Pass accuracy %
87%
homeawayprediction64.7974.07safe60.76–68.8269.75–78.40safer59.47–70.1168.44–79.71
Fouls
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9913.7426.73safe10.16–15.8310.79–16.6820.95–32.51safer9.40–16.5910.05–17.4319.44–34.02
Offsides
36%
24%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.563.04safe0.32–2.640.46–2.650.79–5.29safer0.02–2.940.18–2.940.20–5.88
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.232.264.50safe1.18–3.281.13–3.392.32–6.67safer0.92–3.550.84–3.681.76–7.23
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.090.22safe0.00–0.290.00–0.280.00–0.57safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.85
GK saves
51%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.152.605.76safe1.72–4.591.05–4.162.77–8.75safer1.33–4.980.62–4.591.95–9.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.03 0.06–2.00 0.00–2.25 | 1.51 0.66–2.37 0.43–2.59 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.24–4.84 | 26% 26% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.50 1.64–5.37 1.15–5.86 | 4.83 3.09–6.57 2.62–7.04 | 8.33 4.73–11.94 3.77–12.89 | 26% 61% |
| Total shots | 10.53 6.61–14.46 5.52–15.55 | 12.96 9.40–16.53 8.44–17.48 | 23.50 16.01–30.98 13.96–33.04 | 27% 65% |
| Shots in box | 6.73 3.79–9.67 2.96–10.50 | 8.02 5.34–10.70 4.60–11.44 | 14.75 9.13–20.38 7.56–21.94 | 32% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.34–5.10 0.80–5.65 | 3.52 1.87–5.17 1.37–5.66 | 6.74 3.20–10.28 2.17–11.31 | 38% 16% 47% |
| Corners | 4.21 1.99–6.42 1.42–6.99 | 4.75 2.75–6.75 2.21–7.28 | 8.95 4.74–13.17 3.63–14.27 | 36% 13% 50% |
| Possession % | 43.47 36.68–50.26 35.01–51.93 | 57.33 50.54–64.11 48.87–65.78 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 386 319–453 301–472 | 499 433–566 415–583 | 886 752–1019 716–1055 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.79 60.76–68.82 59.47–70.11 | 74.07 69.75–78.40 68.44–79.71 | — | 87% |
| Fouls | 12.99 10.16–15.83 9.40–16.59 | 13.74 10.79–16.68 10.05–17.43 | 26.73 20.95–32.51 19.44–34.02 | 40% 52% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.94 | 1.56 0.46–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.04 0.79–5.29 0.20–5.88 | 36% 24% 40% |
| Yellow cards | 2.23 1.18–3.28 0.92–3.55 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.50 2.32–6.67 1.76–7.23 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.15 1.72–4.59 1.33–4.98 | 2.60 1.05–4.16 0.62–4.59 | 5.76 2.77–8.75 1.95–9.56 | 51% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.