La Liga·Regular Season - 28·
La Liga·Regular Season - 28·Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction0.942.493.44safe0.00–1.911.64–3.351.61–5.26safer0.00–2.161.41–3.581.13–5.74
Shots on target
81%
homeawaytotalprediction2.956.099.05safe1.09–4.824.35–7.845.44–12.65safer0.60–5.313.88–8.304.49–13.61
Total shots
95%
homeawaytotalprediction8.5917.2825.88safe4.67–12.5213.72–20.8518.39–33.36safer3.58–13.6112.76–21.8116.34–35.42
Shots in box
94%
homeawaytotalprediction5.1512.0817.22safe2.20–8.099.40–14.7611.60–22.85safer1.38–8.928.66–15.5010.03–24.41
Blocked shots
14%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction2.484.887.36safe0.60–4.373.23–6.533.83–10.90safer0.06–4.912.73–7.022.79–11.93
Corners
13%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.326.219.53safe1.11–5.534.21–8.215.32–13.74safer0.53–6.113.68–8.744.21–14.85
Possession %
19%
78%
homeawayprediction43.8157.68safe37.02–50.6050.90–64.47safer35.35–52.2749.23–66.14
Passes
14%
86%
homeawaytotalprediction4355661001safe367–502500–633867–1135safer349–520482–650831–1170
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction65.6578.38safe61.63–69.6874.06–82.71safer60.33–70.9872.75–84.01
Fouls
41%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2711.8323.09safe8.43–14.108.88–14.7717.31–28.87safer7.67–14.868.13–15.5215.80–30.38
Offsides
17%
15%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction1.573.054.62safe0.41–2.731.95–4.142.37–6.87safer0.11–3.041.66–4.431.78–7.46
Yellow cards
45%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.863.97safe1.06–3.160.73–2.991.79–6.15safer0.80–3.430.44–3.281.24–6.71
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.090.20safe0.00–0.270.00–0.270.00–0.54safer0.00–0.420.00–0.410.00–0.83
GK saves
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.082.136.20safe2.64–5.510.57–3.683.21–9.20safer2.25–5.900.15–4.112.40–10.01
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.94 0.00–1.91 0.00–2.16 | 2.49 1.64–3.35 1.41–3.58 | 3.44 1.61–5.26 1.13–5.74 | 17% 71% |
| Shots on target | 2.95 1.09–4.82 0.60–5.31 | 6.09 4.35–7.84 3.88–8.30 | 9.05 5.44–12.65 4.49–13.61 | 81% |
| Total shots | 8.59 4.67–12.52 3.58–13.61 | 17.28 13.72–20.85 12.76–21.81 | 25.88 18.39–33.36 16.34–35.42 | 95% |
| Shots in box | 5.15 2.20–8.09 1.38–8.92 | 12.08 9.40–14.76 8.66–15.50 | 17.22 11.60–22.85 10.03–24.41 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 2.48 0.60–4.37 0.06–4.91 | 4.88 3.23–6.53 2.73–7.02 | 7.36 3.83–10.90 2.79–11.93 | 14% 76% |
| Corners | 3.32 1.11–5.53 0.53–6.11 | 6.21 4.21–8.21 3.68–8.74 | 9.53 5.32–13.74 4.21–14.85 | 13% 78% |
| Possession % | 43.81 37.02–50.60 35.35–52.27 | 57.68 50.90–64.47 49.23–66.14 | — | 19% 78% |
| Passes | 435 367–502 349–520 | 566 500–633 482–650 | 1001 867–1135 831–1170 | 14% 86% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.65 61.63–69.68 60.33–70.98 | 78.38 74.06–82.71 72.75–84.01 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 11.27 8.43–14.10 7.67–14.86 | 11.83 8.88–14.77 8.13–15.52 | 23.09 17.31–28.87 15.80–30.38 | 41% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.11–3.04 | 3.05 1.95–4.14 1.66–4.43 | 4.62 2.37–6.87 1.78–7.46 | 17% 15% 67% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.80–3.43 | 1.86 0.73–2.99 0.44–3.28 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 45% 21% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 4.08 2.64–5.51 2.25–5.90 | 2.13 0.57–3.68 0.15–4.11 | 6.20 3.21–9.20 2.40–10.01 | 72% 16% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.