La Liga·Regular Season - 29·
La Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
25%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.041.602.64safe0.07–2.010.75–2.460.82–4.47safer0.00–2.260.52–2.690.34–4.95
Shots on target
31%
14%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction3.684.558.23safe1.81–5.542.81–6.294.62–11.83safer1.32–6.032.34–6.763.67–12.79
Total shots
36%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1313.5025.63safe8.20–16.059.94–17.0718.15–33.12safer7.11–17.148.98–18.0316.09–35.17
Shots in box
30%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction7.559.1816.73safe4.61–10.496.50–11.8611.11–22.36safer3.78–11.325.76–12.609.54–23.92
Blocked shots
35%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.464.027.48safe1.58–5.342.36–5.673.94–11.01safer1.04–5.891.87–6.162.91–12.05
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.989.77safe2.58–7.012.98–6.985.56–13.98safer2.01–7.582.44–7.514.45–15.09
Possession %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction43.2057.44safe36.41–49.9950.65–64.22safer34.74–51.6648.98–65.89
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction374490864safe307–441423–556730–998safer289–459406–574695–1033
Pass accuracy %
88%
homeawayprediction64.1173.81safe60.08–68.1369.49–78.14safer58.78–69.4368.18–79.45
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2812.2225.51safe10.44–16.129.28–15.1719.72–31.29safer9.69–16.888.53–15.9218.22–32.79
Offsides
68%
16%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction2.861.394.25safe1.70–4.020.30–2.492.00–6.51safer1.40–4.320.01–2.781.41–7.09
Yellow cards
35%
21%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.852.113.97safe0.80–2.900.99–3.241.79–6.14safer0.54–3.170.69–3.541.23–6.70
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.080.17safe0.00–0.250.00–0.270.00–0.52safer0.00–0.400.00–0.400.00–0.80
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.735.73safe1.57–4.441.17–4.292.74–8.73safer1.18–4.830.75–4.711.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.04 0.07–2.01 0.00–2.26 | 1.60 0.75–2.46 0.52–2.69 | 2.64 0.82–4.47 0.34–4.95 | 25% 25% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.68 1.81–5.54 1.32–6.03 | 4.55 2.81–6.29 2.34–6.76 | 8.23 4.62–11.83 3.67–12.79 | 31% 14% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.13 8.20–16.05 7.11–17.14 | 13.50 9.94–17.07 8.98–18.03 | 25.63 18.15–33.12 16.09–35.17 | 36% 57% |
| Shots in box | 7.55 4.61–10.49 3.78–11.32 | 9.18 6.50–11.86 5.76–12.60 | 16.73 11.11–22.36 9.54–23.92 | 30% 61% |
| Blocked shots | 3.46 1.58–5.34 1.04–5.89 | 4.02 2.36–5.67 1.87–6.16 | 7.48 3.94–11.01 2.91–12.05 | 35% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.79 2.58–7.01 2.01–7.58 | 4.98 2.98–6.98 2.44–7.51 | 9.77 5.56–13.98 4.45–15.09 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 43.20 36.41–49.99 34.74–51.66 | 57.44 50.65–64.22 48.98–65.89 | — | 18% 78% |
| Passes | 374 307–441 289–459 | 490 423–556 406–574 | 864 730–998 695–1033 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.11 60.08–68.13 58.78–69.43 | 73.81 69.49–78.14 68.18–79.45 | — | 88% |
| Fouls | 13.28 10.44–16.12 9.69–16.88 | 12.22 9.28–15.17 8.53–15.92 | 25.51 19.72–31.29 18.22–32.79 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 2.86 1.70–4.02 1.40–4.32 | 1.39 0.30–2.49 0.01–2.78 | 4.25 2.00–6.51 1.41–7.09 | 68% 16% 16% |
| Yellow cards | 1.85 0.80–2.90 0.54–3.17 | 2.11 0.99–3.24 0.69–3.54 | 3.97 1.79–6.14 1.23–6.70 | 35% 21% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.57–4.44 1.18–4.83 | 2.73 1.17–4.29 0.75–4.71 | 5.73 2.74–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.