La Liga·Regular Season - 29·
La Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.122.60safe0.51–2.450.27–1.980.78–4.42safer0.26–2.700.04–2.200.30–4.90
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.763.768.51safe2.89–6.622.02–5.504.91–12.12safer2.40–7.111.55–5.973.95–13.07
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2311.0125.24safe10.31–18.157.45–14.5717.75–32.73safer9.21–19.256.49–15.5315.70–34.78
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.577.3815.95safe5.63–11.514.70–10.0610.33–21.57safer4.80–12.343.96–10.808.76–23.14
Blocked shots
61%
14%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction4.102.886.98safe2.22–5.981.23–4.533.44–10.52safer1.67–6.520.74–5.032.41–11.55
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.864.019.87safe3.65–8.082.01–6.015.66–14.09safer3.08–8.651.48–6.544.55–15.19
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction59.5041.18safe52.71–66.2934.40–47.97safer51.04–67.9632.73–49.64
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction537339876safe469–604273–406742–1010safer451–622255–423707–1045
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction65.1864.03safe61.15–69.2159.70–68.35safer59.86–70.5058.39–69.66
Fouls
33%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.3613.0524.42safe8.53–14.2010.11–16.0018.63–30.20safer7.77–14.969.36–16.7517.13–31.70
Offsides
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.992.224.21safe0.83–3.151.13–3.311.96–6.47safer0.53–3.450.84–3.601.37–7.06
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.722.273.99safe0.67–2.771.14–3.401.81–6.17safer0.40–3.030.85–3.691.26–6.73
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
31%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.573.225.80safe1.14–4.011.67–4.782.80–8.79safer0.75–4.401.24–5.201.99–9.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.48 0.51–2.45 0.26–2.70 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.20 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 45% 26% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.76 2.89–6.62 2.40–7.11 | 3.76 2.02–5.50 1.55–5.97 | 8.51 4.91–12.12 3.95–13.07 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.23 10.31–18.15 9.21–19.25 | 11.01 7.45–14.57 6.49–15.53 | 25.24 17.75–32.73 15.70–34.78 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 8.57 5.63–11.51 4.80–12.34 | 7.38 4.70–10.06 3.96–10.80 | 15.95 10.33–21.57 8.76–23.14 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 4.10 2.22–5.98 1.67–6.52 | 2.88 1.23–4.53 0.74–5.03 | 6.98 3.44–10.52 2.41–11.55 | 61% 14% 26% |
| Corners | 5.86 3.65–8.08 3.08–8.65 | 4.01 2.01–6.01 1.48–6.54 | 9.87 5.66–14.09 4.55–15.19 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 59.50 52.71–66.29 51.04–67.96 | 41.18 34.40–47.97 32.73–49.64 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 537 469–604 451–622 | 339 273–406 255–423 | 876 742–1010 707–1045 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.18 61.15–69.21 59.86–70.50 | 64.03 59.70–68.35 58.39–69.66 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 11.36 8.53–14.20 7.77–14.96 | 13.05 10.11–16.00 9.36–16.75 | 24.42 18.63–30.20 17.13–31.70 | 33% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.99 0.83–3.15 0.53–3.45 | 2.22 1.13–3.31 0.84–3.60 | 4.21 1.96–6.47 1.37–7.06 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.72 0.67–2.77 0.40–3.03 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.26–6.73 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.57 1.14–4.01 0.75–4.40 | 3.22 1.67–4.78 1.24–5.20 | 5.80 2.80–8.79 1.99–9.60 | 31% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.