La Liga·Regular Season - 29·
La Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.412.68safe0.30–2.240.56–2.260.86–4.50safer0.05–2.490.33–2.490.38–4.98
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.024.288.30safe2.16–5.892.53–6.024.70–11.91safer1.67–6.382.07–6.483.74–12.86
Total shots
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2013.5225.72safe8.27–16.129.96–17.0818.23–33.20safer7.18–17.219.00–18.0416.18–35.25
Shots in box
33%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction7.418.6816.09safe4.47–10.366.00–11.3610.47–21.72safer3.64–11.185.26–12.108.90–23.28
Blocked shots
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.644.077.71safe1.76–5.522.42–5.734.18–11.25safer1.22–6.071.93–6.223.14–12.28
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.124.519.64safe2.91–7.342.51–6.515.42–13.85safer2.34–7.911.98–7.054.32–14.96
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction48.9252.86safe42.13–55.7146.07–59.64safer40.46–57.3844.40–61.31
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction480481960safe413–547414–547827–1094safer394–565397–565791–1130
Pass accuracy %
17%
79%
homeawayprediction67.7574.62safe63.72–71.7870.29–78.94safer62.43–73.0768.98–80.25
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction11.1611.6122.77safe8.32–13.998.67–14.5616.99–28.55safer7.56–14.757.92–15.3015.48–30.06
Offsides
35%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.691.913.60safe0.53–2.850.82–3.011.35–5.85safer0.23–3.150.53–3.290.76–6.44
Yellow cards
41%
22%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.693.47safe0.73–2.830.56–2.821.30–5.65safer0.47–3.100.27–3.110.74–6.21
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.722.945.66safe1.28–4.151.39–4.502.67–8.65safer0.89–4.540.96–4.921.86–9.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.41 0.56–2.26 0.33–2.49 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 34% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.02 2.16–5.89 1.67–6.38 | 4.28 2.53–6.02 2.07–6.48 | 8.30 4.70–11.91 3.74–12.86 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.20 8.27–16.12 7.18–17.21 | 13.52 9.96–17.08 9.00–18.04 | 25.72 18.23–33.20 16.18–35.25 | 36% 56% |
| Shots in box | 7.41 4.47–10.36 3.64–11.18 | 8.68 6.00–11.36 5.26–12.10 | 16.09 10.47–21.72 8.90–23.28 | 33% 58% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.76–5.52 1.22–6.07 | 4.07 2.42–5.73 1.93–6.22 | 7.71 4.18–11.25 3.14–12.28 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Corners | 5.12 2.91–7.34 2.34–7.91 | 4.51 2.51–6.51 1.98–7.05 | 9.64 5.42–13.85 4.32–14.96 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 48.92 42.13–55.71 40.46–57.38 | 52.86 46.07–59.64 44.40–61.31 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 480 413–547 394–565 | 481 414–547 397–565 | 960 827–1094 791–1130 | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.75 63.72–71.78 62.43–73.07 | 74.62 70.29–78.94 68.98–80.25 | — | 17% 79% |
| Fouls | 11.16 8.32–13.99 7.56–14.75 | 11.61 8.67–14.56 7.92–15.30 | 22.77 16.99–28.55 15.48–30.06 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 1.91 0.82–3.01 0.53–3.29 | 3.60 1.35–5.85 0.76–6.44 | 35% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 1.69 0.56–2.82 0.27–3.11 | 3.47 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.21 | 41% 22% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.28–4.15 0.89–4.54 | 2.94 1.39–4.50 0.96–4.92 | 5.66 2.67–8.65 1.86–9.47 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+