Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.262.41safe0.19–2.130.40–2.110.59–4.24safer0.00–2.380.17–2.340.11–4.72
Shots on target
48%
14%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction4.103.757.86safe2.24–5.972.01–5.504.25–11.46safer1.75–6.461.54–5.963.30–12.42
Total shots
64%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4312.0726.50safe10.51–18.368.50–15.6319.01–33.99safer9.42–19.457.55–16.5916.96–36.04
Shots in box
47%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.037.7815.82safe5.09–10.975.10–10.4610.19–21.44safer4.26–11.804.36–11.208.63–23.01
Blocked shots
44%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.793.677.46safe1.91–5.682.01–5.323.92–10.99safer1.37–6.221.52–5.812.89–12.03
Corners
44%
13%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.814.809.61safe2.60–7.022.80–6.805.40–13.82safer2.02–7.602.27–7.334.29–14.93
Possession %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction46.6453.23safe39.85–53.4346.45–60.02safer38.18–55.1044.78–61.69
Passes
30%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction360421782safe293–427355–488648–915safer275–446337–505612–951
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction62.8670.34safe58.83–66.8966.02–74.67safer57.54–68.1864.71–75.98
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3415.0028.34safe10.50–16.1712.06–17.9522.56–34.12safer9.74–16.9311.31–18.6921.05–35.62
Offsides
35%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.603.05safe0.29–2.610.51–2.690.80–5.31safer0.00–2.910.22–2.980.21–5.90
Yellow cards
42%
19%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.322.244.56safe1.27–3.371.11–3.362.38–6.74safer1.01–3.640.82–3.661.82–7.29
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.23safe0.00–0.260.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.410.00–0.450.00–0.86
GK saves
38%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.682.915.59safe1.25–4.121.35–4.472.60–8.59safer0.86–4.510.93–4.891.79–9.40
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.41 0.59–4.24 0.11–4.72 | 34% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.10 2.24–5.97 1.75–6.46 | 3.75 2.01–5.50 1.54–5.96 | 7.86 4.25–11.46 3.30–12.42 | 48% 14% 38% |
| Total shots | 14.43 10.51–18.36 9.42–19.45 | 12.07 8.50–15.63 7.55–16.59 | 26.50 19.01–33.99 16.96–36.04 | 64% 29% |
| Shots in box | 8.03 5.09–10.97 4.26–11.80 | 7.78 5.10–10.46 4.36–11.20 | 15.82 10.19–21.44 8.63–23.01 | 47% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.79 1.91–5.68 1.37–6.22 | 3.67 2.01–5.32 1.52–5.81 | 7.46 3.92–10.99 2.89–12.03 | 44% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.60–7.02 2.02–7.60 | 4.80 2.80–6.80 2.27–7.33 | 9.61 5.40–13.82 4.29–14.93 | 44% 13% 43% |
| Possession % | 46.64 39.85–53.43 38.18–55.10 | 53.23 46.45–60.02 44.78–61.69 | — | 33% 63% |
| Passes | 360 293–427 275–446 | 421 355–488 337–505 | 782 648–915 612–951 | 30% 69% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.86 58.83–66.89 57.54–68.18 | 70.34 66.02–74.67 64.71–75.98 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 13.34 10.50–16.17 9.74–16.93 | 15.00 12.06–17.95 11.31–18.69 | 28.34 22.56–34.12 21.05–35.62 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.45 0.29–2.61 0.00–2.91 | 1.60 0.51–2.69 0.22–2.98 | 3.05 0.80–5.31 0.21–5.90 | 35% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.27–3.37 1.01–3.64 | 2.24 1.11–3.36 0.82–3.66 | 4.56 2.38–6.74 1.82–7.29 | 42% 19% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.25–4.12 0.86–4.51 | 2.91 1.35–4.47 0.93–4.89 | 5.59 2.60–8.59 1.79–9.40 | 38% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+