La Liga·Regular Season - 31·
La Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.282.76safe0.52–2.450.42–2.130.94–4.58safer0.27–2.700.19–2.360.46–5.06
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.449.14safe2.84–6.562.70–6.195.54–12.75safer2.35–7.052.24–6.654.58–13.70
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1312.2326.36safe10.21–18.058.67–15.8018.88–33.85safer9.11–19.157.71–16.7616.83–35.90
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.848.2317.07safe5.90–11.795.54–10.9111.45–22.69safer5.07–12.624.81–11.649.88–24.26
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.743.777.50safe1.85–5.622.12–5.423.97–11.04safer1.31–6.161.62–5.912.93–12.08
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction5.424.579.99safe3.21–7.632.57–6.575.78–14.20safer2.63–8.212.04–7.104.67–15.31
Possession %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction51.4648.32safe44.67–58.2541.53–55.10safer43.00–59.9239.86–56.78
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction503455958safe436–570389–522825–1092safer418–588371–539789–1128
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction73.1373.58safe69.10–77.1669.26–77.91safer67.80–78.4567.95–79.22
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9312.1624.09safe9.09–14.779.21–15.1018.31–29.87safer8.34–15.528.46–15.8516.80–31.37
Offsides
71%
15%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.061.404.46safe1.90–4.220.30–2.492.21–6.71safer1.60–4.520.02–2.781.62–7.30
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.782.093.87safe0.73–2.830.96–3.221.69–6.05safer0.46–3.100.67–3.511.14–6.61
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
39%
17%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.853.045.90safe1.42–4.291.49–4.602.91–8.89safer1.03–4.681.06–5.032.09–9.70
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.45 0.27–2.70 | 1.28 0.42–2.13 0.19–2.36 | 2.76 0.94–4.58 0.46–5.06 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.70 2.84–6.56 2.35–7.05 | 4.44 2.70–6.19 2.24–6.65 | 9.14 5.54–12.75 4.58–13.70 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.13 10.21–18.05 9.11–19.15 | 12.23 8.67–15.80 7.71–16.76 | 26.36 18.88–33.85 16.83–35.90 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 8.84 5.90–11.79 5.07–12.62 | 8.23 5.54–10.91 4.81–11.64 | 17.07 11.45–22.69 9.88–24.26 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.85–5.62 1.31–6.16 | 3.77 2.12–5.42 1.62–5.91 | 7.50 3.97–11.04 2.93–12.08 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 5.42 3.21–7.63 2.63–8.21 | 4.57 2.57–6.57 2.04–7.10 | 9.99 5.78–14.20 4.67–15.31 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 51.46 44.67–58.25 43.00–59.92 | 48.32 41.53–55.10 39.86–56.78 | — | 55% 40% |
| Passes | 503 436–570 418–588 | 455 389–522 371–539 | 958 825–1092 789–1128 | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.13 69.10–77.16 67.80–78.45 | 73.58 69.26–77.91 67.95–79.22 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 11.93 9.09–14.77 8.34–15.52 | 12.16 9.21–15.10 8.46–15.85 | 24.09 18.31–29.87 16.80–31.37 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 3.06 1.90–4.22 1.60–4.52 | 1.40 0.30–2.49 0.02–2.78 | 4.46 2.21–6.71 1.62–7.30 | 71% 15% 14% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.73–2.83 0.46–3.10 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 3.87 1.69–6.05 1.14–6.61 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.85 1.42–4.29 1.03–4.68 | 3.04 1.49–4.60 1.06–5.03 | 5.90 2.91–8.89 2.09–9.70 | 39% 17% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+