La Liga·Regular Season - 32·
La Liga·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
24%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.731.262.98safe0.76–2.700.40–2.111.16–4.81safer0.51–2.950.17–2.340.68–5.29
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.324.139.45safe3.45–7.182.39–5.885.85–13.06safer2.96–7.671.93–6.344.89–14.01
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7811.6026.37safe10.85–18.708.03–15.1618.89–33.86safer9.76–19.797.07–16.1216.84–35.91
Shots in box
64%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction9.867.8517.70safe6.91–12.805.16–10.5312.08–23.32safer6.08–13.634.43–11.2610.51–24.89
Blocked shots
59%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.097.28safe2.30–6.071.44–4.743.74–10.81safer1.76–6.610.95–5.242.71–11.85
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.534.5110.05safe3.32–7.752.51–6.515.84–14.26safer2.75–8.321.98–7.054.73–15.37
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.2046.20safe47.41–60.9939.41–52.98safer45.74–62.6637.74–54.65
Passes
78%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction538444981safe471–605377–510848–1115safer452–623360–528812–1151
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction72.9472.70safe68.91–76.9768.38–77.03safer67.62–78.2667.07–78.34
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction10.5612.6423.20safe7.72–13.399.70–15.5917.42–28.98safer6.96–14.158.95–16.3415.91–30.49
Offsides
39%
18%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.482.595.07safe1.32–3.641.50–3.682.81–7.32safer1.02–3.941.21–3.972.22–7.91
Yellow cards
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.502.273.77safe0.45–2.551.14–3.401.59–5.95safer0.19–2.820.85–3.691.03–6.50
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.100.16safe0.00–0.220.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.370.00–0.420.00–0.79
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.773.676.44safe1.34–4.212.11–5.223.45–9.43safer0.95–4.601.69–5.652.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.73 0.76–2.70 0.51–2.95 | 1.26 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.98 1.16–4.81 0.68–5.29 | 49% 24% 28% |
| Shots on target | 5.32 3.45–7.18 2.96–7.67 | 4.13 2.39–5.88 1.93–6.34 | 9.45 5.85–13.06 4.89–14.01 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 14.78 10.85–18.70 9.76–19.79 | 11.60 8.03–15.16 7.07–16.12 | 26.37 18.89–33.86 16.84–35.91 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 9.86 6.91–12.80 6.08–13.63 | 7.85 5.16–10.53 4.43–11.26 | 17.70 12.08–23.32 10.51–24.89 | 64% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 4.19 2.30–6.07 1.76–6.61 | 3.09 1.44–4.74 0.95–5.24 | 7.28 3.74–10.81 2.71–11.85 | 59% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.53 3.32–7.75 2.75–8.32 | 4.51 2.51–6.51 1.98–7.05 | 10.05 5.84–14.26 4.73–15.37 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 54.20 47.41–60.99 45.74–62.66 | 46.20 39.41–52.98 37.74–54.65 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 538 471–605 452–623 | 444 377–510 360–528 | 981 848–1115 812–1151 | 78% 21% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.94 68.91–76.97 67.62–78.26 | 72.70 68.38–77.03 67.07–78.34 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 10.56 7.72–13.39 6.96–14.15 | 12.64 9.70–15.59 8.95–16.34 | 23.20 17.42–28.98 15.91–30.49 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 2.48 1.32–3.64 1.02–3.94 | 2.59 1.50–3.68 1.21–3.97 | 5.07 2.81–7.32 2.22–7.91 | 39% 18% 43% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 3.77 1.59–5.95 1.03–6.50 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.77 1.34–4.21 0.95–4.60 | 3.67 2.11–5.22 1.69–5.65 | 6.44 3.45–9.43 2.64–10.25 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.