Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.372.60safe0.26–2.200.52–2.230.78–4.42safer0.01–2.450.29–2.460.30–4.90
Shots on target
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.489.07safe2.72–6.452.74–6.235.46–12.67safer2.23–6.942.27–6.694.51–13.63
Total shots
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2512.5326.79safe10.33–18.188.97–16.1019.30–34.28safer9.24–19.278.01–17.0617.25–36.33
Shots in box
51%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction8.758.1516.90safe5.81–11.695.47–10.8311.28–22.53safer4.98–12.524.73–11.579.71–24.09
Blocked shots
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.773.267.03safe1.88–5.651.61–4.923.49–10.57safer1.34–6.191.12–5.412.46–11.60
Corners
51%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction5.314.7310.05safe3.10–7.532.73–6.735.83–14.26safer2.53–8.102.20–7.274.73–15.37
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.8448.93safe44.05–57.6342.15–55.72safer42.38–59.3040.48–57.39
Passes
62%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction471434906safe404–539368–501772–1039safer386–557350–518736–1075
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction68.7469.93safe64.71–72.7765.61–74.25safer63.42–74.0664.30–75.56
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3911.2023.59safe9.55–15.228.26–14.1517.81–29.37safer8.79–15.987.51–14.9016.30–30.88
Offsides
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.052.094.13safe0.89–3.210.99–3.181.88–6.39safer0.59–3.510.70–3.471.29–6.98
Yellow cards
43%
21%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.011.863.87safe0.96–3.060.73–2.981.69–6.04safer0.70–3.330.44–3.281.13–6.60
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
36%
16%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.883.266.14safe1.44–4.321.71–4.823.15–9.13safer1.06–4.701.28–5.242.34–9.95
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.60 0.78–4.42 0.30–4.90 | 33% 26% 40% |
| Shots on target | 4.59 2.72–6.45 2.23–6.94 | 4.48 2.74–6.23 2.27–6.69 | 9.07 5.46–12.67 4.51–13.63 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Total shots | 14.25 10.33–18.18 9.24–19.27 | 12.53 8.97–16.10 8.01–17.06 | 26.79 19.30–34.28 17.25–36.33 | 59% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.75 5.81–11.69 4.98–12.52 | 8.15 5.47–10.83 4.73–11.57 | 16.90 11.28–22.53 9.71–24.09 | 51% 39% |
| Blocked shots | 3.77 1.88–5.65 1.34–6.19 | 3.26 1.61–4.92 1.12–5.41 | 7.03 3.49–10.57 2.46–11.60 | 50% 15% 35% |
| Corners | 5.31 3.10–7.53 2.53–8.10 | 4.73 2.73–6.73 2.20–7.27 | 10.05 5.83–14.26 4.73–15.37 | 51% 37% |
| Possession % | 50.84 44.05–57.63 42.38–59.30 | 48.93 42.15–55.72 40.48–57.39 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 471 404–539 386–557 | 434 368–501 350–518 | 906 772–1039 736–1075 | 62% 38% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.74 64.71–72.77 63.42–74.06 | 69.93 65.61–74.25 64.30–75.56 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 12.39 9.55–15.22 8.79–15.98 | 11.20 8.26–14.15 7.51–14.90 | 23.59 17.81–29.37 16.30–30.88 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 2.09 0.99–3.18 0.70–3.47 | 4.13 1.88–6.39 1.29–6.98 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 2.01 0.96–3.06 0.70–3.33 | 1.86 0.73–2.98 0.44–3.28 | 3.87 1.69–6.04 1.13–6.60 | 43% 21% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.88 1.44–4.32 1.06–4.70 | 3.26 1.71–4.82 1.28–5.24 | 6.14 3.15–9.13 2.34–9.95 | 36% 16% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.