La Liga·Regular Season - 33·
La Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction0.882.453.33safe0.00–1.851.60–3.311.51–5.15safer0.00–2.101.37–3.531.03–5.63
Shots on target
84%
homeawaytotalprediction3.407.0210.42safe1.53–5.265.28–8.766.81–14.02safer1.04–5.754.81–9.235.86–14.98
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction8.5619.1127.67safe4.63–12.4815.55–22.6820.18–35.16safer3.54–13.5714.59–23.6418.13–37.21
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction5.5013.1718.68safe2.56–8.4510.49–15.8613.05–24.30safer1.73–9.289.76–16.5911.49–25.87
Blocked shots
85%
homeawaytotalprediction2.145.487.62safe0.26–4.023.83–7.134.08–11.15safer0.00–4.563.34–7.633.05–12.19
Corners
81%
homeawaytotalprediction3.106.259.35safe0.88–5.314.25–8.255.14–13.56safer0.31–5.893.72–8.794.03–14.67
Possession %
100%
homeawayprediction27.6573.01safe20.86–34.4466.23–79.80safer19.19–36.1164.56–81.47
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction3117501061safe244–378683–816927–1195safer226–396666–834892–1230
Pass accuracy %
100%
homeawayprediction62.6285.93safe58.59–66.6581.60–90.25safer57.30–67.9480.30–91.56
Fouls
69%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction11.548.8320.37safe8.71–14.385.88–11.7714.59–26.15safer7.95–15.145.13–12.5213.08–27.66
Offsides
81%
homeawaytotalprediction4.061.555.61safe2.90–5.220.45–2.643.36–7.86safer2.60–5.530.17–2.932.77–8.45
Yellow cards
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.001.423.42safe0.95–3.050.29–2.551.24–5.60safer0.68–3.310.00–2.840.68–6.15
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
77%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction4.672.276.94safe3.23–6.100.72–3.833.95–9.93safer2.84–6.490.29–4.253.14–10.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.88 0.00–1.85 0.00–2.10 | 2.45 1.60–3.31 1.37–3.53 | 3.33 1.51–5.15 1.03–5.63 | 17% 72% |
| Shots on target | 3.40 1.53–5.26 1.04–5.75 | 7.02 5.28–8.76 4.81–9.23 | 10.42 6.81–14.02 5.86–14.98 | 84% |
| Total shots | 8.56 4.63–12.48 3.54–13.57 | 19.11 15.55–22.68 14.59–23.64 | 27.67 20.18–35.16 18.13–37.21 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 5.50 2.56–8.45 1.73–9.28 | 13.17 10.49–15.86 9.76–16.59 | 18.68 13.05–24.30 11.49–25.87 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 2.14 0.26–4.02 0.00–4.56 | 5.48 3.83–7.13 3.34–7.63 | 7.62 4.08–11.15 3.05–12.19 | 85% |
| Corners | 3.10 0.88–5.31 0.31–5.89 | 6.25 4.25–8.25 3.72–8.79 | 9.35 5.14–13.56 4.03–14.67 | 81% |
| Possession % | 27.65 20.86–34.44 19.19–36.11 | 73.01 66.23–79.80 64.56–81.47 | — | 100% |
| Passes | 311 244–378 226–396 | 750 683–816 666–834 | 1061 927–1195 892–1230 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.62 58.59–66.65 57.30–67.94 | 85.93 81.60–90.25 80.30–91.56 | — | 100% |
| Fouls | 11.54 8.71–14.38 7.95–15.14 | 8.83 5.88–11.77 5.13–12.52 | 20.37 14.59–26.15 13.08–27.66 | 69% 24% |
| Offsides | 4.06 2.90–5.22 2.60–5.53 | 1.55 0.45–2.64 0.17–2.93 | 5.61 3.36–7.86 2.77–8.45 | 81% |
| Yellow cards | 2.00 0.95–3.05 0.68–3.31 | 1.42 0.29–2.55 0.00–2.84 | 3.42 1.24–5.60 0.68–6.15 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 4.67 3.23–6.10 2.84–6.49 | 2.27 0.72–3.83 0.29–4.25 | 6.94 3.95–9.93 3.14–10.74 | 77% 13% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.