La Liga·Regular Season - 33·
La Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
36%
26%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.331.392.71safe0.36–2.290.53–2.240.89–4.53safer0.11–2.540.30–2.470.41–5.01
Shots on target
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.474.308.77safe2.60–6.332.56–6.045.16–12.37safer2.11–6.822.09–6.514.21–13.33
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5112.6827.19safe10.58–18.439.12–16.2519.71–34.68safer9.49–19.528.16–17.2117.65–36.73
Shots in box
60%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction9.618.0417.65safe6.67–12.555.36–10.7212.03–23.27safer5.84–13.384.62–11.4610.46–24.84
Blocked shots
45%
14%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction4.083.958.03safe2.20–5.972.29–5.604.50–11.57safer1.66–6.511.80–6.093.46–12.60
Corners
54%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.444.6210.06safe3.23–7.652.62–6.625.85–14.28safer2.65–8.232.09–7.154.74–15.38
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction48.2852.45safe41.49–55.0745.66–59.23safer39.82–56.7443.99–60.90
Passes
50%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction418418836safe351–485352–484703–970safer333–504334–502667–1006
Pass accuracy %
16%
80%
homeawayprediction62.6369.72safe58.60–66.6665.40–74.05safer57.31–67.9664.09–75.36
Fouls
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6912.1624.84safe9.85–15.529.21–15.1019.06–30.63safer9.09–16.288.46–15.8517.56–32.13
Offsides
52%
21%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.021.383.41safe0.86–3.180.29–2.481.16–5.66safer0.56–3.490.00–2.770.57–6.25
Yellow cards
38%
21%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.962.023.98safe0.91–3.010.90–3.151.81–6.16safer0.64–3.270.60–3.441.25–6.72
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
38%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.216.20safe1.55–4.421.66–4.773.21–9.19safer1.16–4.811.23–5.192.39–10.00
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.33 0.36–2.29 0.11–2.54 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.30–2.47 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 36% 26% 39% |
| Shots on target | 4.47 2.60–6.33 2.11–6.82 | 4.30 2.56–6.04 2.09–6.51 | 8.77 5.16–12.37 4.21–13.33 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Total shots | 14.51 10.58–18.43 9.49–19.52 | 12.68 9.12–16.25 8.16–17.21 | 27.19 19.71–34.68 17.65–36.73 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 9.61 6.67–12.55 5.84–13.38 | 8.04 5.36–10.72 4.62–11.46 | 17.65 12.03–23.27 10.46–24.84 | 60% 31% |
| Blocked shots | 4.08 2.20–5.97 1.66–6.51 | 3.95 2.29–5.60 1.80–6.09 | 8.03 4.50–11.57 3.46–12.60 | 45% 14% 41% |
| Corners | 5.44 3.23–7.65 2.65–8.23 | 4.62 2.62–6.62 2.09–7.15 | 10.06 5.85–14.28 4.74–15.38 | 54% 34% |
| Possession % | 48.28 41.49–55.07 39.82–56.74 | 52.45 45.66–59.23 43.99–60.90 | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 418 351–485 333–504 | 418 352–484 334–502 | 836 703–970 667–1006 | 50% 50% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.63 58.60–66.66 57.31–67.96 | 69.72 65.40–74.05 64.09–75.36 | — | 16% 80% |
| Fouls | 12.69 9.85–15.52 9.09–16.28 | 12.16 9.21–15.10 8.46–15.85 | 24.84 19.06–30.63 17.56–32.13 | 50% 42% |
| Offsides | 2.02 0.86–3.18 0.56–3.49 | 1.38 0.29–2.48 0.00–2.77 | 3.41 1.16–5.66 0.57–6.25 | 52% 21% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.64–3.27 | 2.02 0.90–3.15 0.60–3.44 | 3.98 1.81–6.16 1.25–6.72 | 38% 21% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.55–4.42 1.16–4.81 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 6.20 3.21–9.19 2.39–10.00 | 38% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+