La Liga·Regular Season - 33·
La Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
25%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.552.80safe0.28–2.220.70–2.400.98–4.62safer0.03–2.470.47–2.630.50–5.10
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.115.049.15safe2.25–5.973.29–6.785.54–12.75safer1.76–6.462.83–7.254.59–13.71
Total shots
25%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5415.5528.08safe8.61–16.4611.98–19.1120.60–35.57safer7.52–17.5511.02–20.0718.55–37.62
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction8.269.4917.76safe5.32–11.216.81–12.1712.13–23.38safer4.49–12.046.07–12.9110.57–24.95
Blocked shots
33%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.864.628.47safe1.98–5.742.96–6.274.94–12.01safer1.43–6.282.47–6.763.90–13.04
Corners
48%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction5.304.9610.27safe3.09–7.522.96–6.966.05–14.48safer2.52–8.092.43–7.504.94–15.59
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction49.2451.59safe42.45–56.0344.80–58.37safer40.78–57.7043.13–60.04
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction434445879safe367–501379–512745–1013safer348–519361–529710–1048
Pass accuracy %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction64.8370.82safe60.80–68.8666.50–75.14safer59.51–70.1565.19–76.45
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3312.0322.36safe7.49–13.179.08–14.9716.58–28.14safer6.74–13.938.34–15.7215.07–29.65
Offsides
42%
21%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.853.82safe0.81–3.130.76–2.941.57–6.07safer0.51–3.430.47–3.230.98–6.66
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.043.74safe0.65–2.750.91–3.171.56–5.91safer0.38–3.010.62–3.461.00–6.47
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
47%
16%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.192.886.08safe1.76–4.631.33–4.443.08–9.07safer1.37–5.020.90–4.862.27–9.88
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.55 0.70–2.40 0.47–2.63 | 2.80 0.98–4.62 0.50–5.10 | 31% 25% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.11 2.25–5.97 1.76–6.46 | 5.04 3.29–6.78 2.83–7.25 | 9.15 5.54–12.75 4.59–13.71 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 12.54 8.61–16.46 7.52–17.55 | 15.55 11.98–19.11 11.02–20.07 | 28.08 20.60–35.57 18.55–37.62 | 25% 68% |
| Shots in box | 8.26 5.32–11.21 4.49–12.04 | 9.49 6.81–12.17 6.07–12.91 | 17.76 12.13–23.38 10.57–24.95 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.86 1.98–5.74 1.43–6.28 | 4.62 2.96–6.27 2.47–6.76 | 8.47 4.94–12.01 3.90–13.04 | 33% 13% 53% |
| Corners | 5.30 3.09–7.52 2.52–8.09 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.43–7.50 | 10.27 6.05–14.48 4.94–15.59 | 48% 40% |
| Possession % | 49.24 42.45–56.03 40.78–57.70 | 51.59 44.80–58.37 43.13–60.04 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 434 367–501 348–519 | 445 379–512 361–529 | 879 745–1013 710–1048 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.83 60.80–68.86 59.51–70.15 | 70.82 66.50–75.14 65.19–76.45 | — | 20% 76% |
| Fouls | 10.33 7.49–13.17 6.74–13.93 | 12.03 9.08–14.97 8.34–15.72 | 22.36 16.58–28.14 15.07–29.65 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.97 0.81–3.13 0.51–3.43 | 1.85 0.76–2.94 0.47–3.23 | 3.82 1.57–6.07 0.98–6.66 | 42% 21% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.38–3.01 | 2.04 0.91–3.17 0.62–3.46 | 3.74 1.56–5.91 1.00–6.47 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.76–4.63 1.37–5.02 | 2.88 1.33–4.44 0.90–4.86 | 6.08 3.08–9.07 2.27–9.88 | 47% 16% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+