La Liga·Regular Season - 33·
La Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
24%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.181.652.83safe0.22–2.150.79–2.501.01–4.66safer0.00–2.400.57–2.730.53–5.14
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.224.598.81safe2.36–6.092.85–6.335.21–12.42safer1.87–6.572.38–6.804.25–13.37
Total shots
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3613.2725.63safe8.43–16.289.71–16.8318.14–33.12safer7.34–17.388.75–17.7916.09–35.17
Shots in box
29%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction7.599.3316.92safe4.65–10.546.65–12.0111.30–22.54safer3.82–11.365.91–12.759.73–24.11
Blocked shots
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.374.187.55safe1.49–5.262.52–5.834.01–11.09safer0.95–5.802.03–6.322.98–12.12
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.514.969.47safe2.30–6.732.96–6.965.26–13.69safer1.73–7.302.43–7.494.15–14.80
Possession %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction50.2950.97safe43.50–57.0844.18–57.75safer41.83–58.7542.51–59.42
Passes
54%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction500486985safe432–567419–552852–1119safer414–585402–570816–1155
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction72.6675.75safe68.63–76.6971.43–80.08safer67.33–77.9870.12–81.39
Fouls
46%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7511.6923.45safe8.92–14.598.75–14.6417.66–29.23safer8.16–15.358.00–15.3816.16–30.73
Offsides
42%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.663.46safe0.64–2.960.56–2.751.20–5.71safer0.34–3.260.27–3.040.61–6.30
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.214.15safe0.89–2.991.08–3.341.97–6.33safer0.63–3.260.79–3.631.42–6.89
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.100.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
46%
17%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.092.815.90safe1.65–4.531.26–4.372.91–8.90safer1.27–4.910.83–4.802.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.18 0.22–2.15 0.00–2.40 | 1.65 0.79–2.50 0.57–2.73 | 2.83 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 27% 24% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.22 2.36–6.09 1.87–6.57 | 4.59 2.85–6.33 2.38–6.80 | 8.81 5.21–12.42 4.25–13.37 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 12.36 8.43–16.28 7.34–17.38 | 13.27 9.71–16.83 8.75–17.79 | 25.63 18.14–33.12 16.09–35.17 | 39% 53% |
| Shots in box | 7.59 4.65–10.54 3.82–11.36 | 9.33 6.65–12.01 5.91–12.75 | 16.92 11.30–22.54 9.73–24.11 | 29% 62% |
| Blocked shots | 3.37 1.49–5.26 0.95–5.80 | 4.18 2.52–5.83 2.03–6.32 | 7.55 4.01–11.09 2.98–12.12 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.30–6.73 1.73–7.30 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.43–7.49 | 9.47 5.26–13.69 4.15–14.80 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 50.29 43.50–57.08 41.83–58.75 | 50.97 44.18–57.75 42.51–59.42 | — | 46% 49% |
| Passes | 500 432–567 414–585 | 486 419–552 402–570 | 985 852–1119 816–1155 | 54% 45% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.66 68.63–76.69 67.33–77.98 | 75.75 71.43–80.08 70.12–81.39 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 11.75 8.92–14.59 8.16–15.35 | 11.69 8.75–14.64 8.00–15.38 | 23.45 17.66–29.23 16.16–30.73 | 46% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 1.66 0.56–2.75 0.27–3.04 | 3.46 1.20–5.71 0.61–6.30 | 42% 22% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.63–3.26 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.15 1.97–6.33 1.42–6.89 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.09 1.65–4.53 1.27–4.91 | 2.81 1.26–4.37 0.83–4.80 | 5.90 2.91–8.90 2.10–9.71 | 46% 17% 37% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+