La Liga·Regular Season - 34·
La Liga·Regular Season - 34·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
23%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.301.753.05safe0.33–2.270.90–2.611.23–4.87safer0.08–2.520.67–2.830.75–5.35
Shots on target
33%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction4.315.119.42safe2.45–6.173.37–6.855.81–13.02safer1.96–6.662.90–7.324.86–13.98
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6514.4528.11safe9.73–17.5810.89–18.0220.62–35.60safer8.64–18.679.93–18.9818.57–37.65
Shots in box
36%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction8.729.8018.52safe5.78–11.677.12–12.4812.90–24.15safer4.95–12.506.38–13.2211.33–25.71
Blocked shots
43%
14%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction4.214.218.41safe2.33–6.092.55–5.864.88–11.95safer1.78–6.632.06–6.353.84–12.99
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.905.3610.26safe2.69–7.123.36–7.366.05–14.47safer2.12–7.692.82–7.894.94–15.58
Possession %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction46.3555.12safe39.56–53.1448.33–61.90safer37.89–54.8146.66–63.57
Passes
27%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction433505938safe366–500439–572805–1072safer347–518421–589769–1108
Pass accuracy %
13%
84%
homeawayprediction66.6774.81safe62.64–70.7070.48–79.13safer61.35–71.9969.17–80.44
Fouls
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6811.7624.43safe9.84–15.518.81–14.7018.65–30.21safer9.08–16.278.06–15.4517.15–31.72
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.601.973.57safe0.44–2.770.87–3.061.32–5.82safer0.14–3.070.58–3.350.73–6.41
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.121.984.11safe1.08–3.170.85–3.111.93–6.29safer0.81–3.440.56–3.401.37–6.84
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.100.22safe0.00–0.280.00–0.290.00–0.57safer0.00–0.430.00–0.420.00–0.85
GK saves
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.412.896.30safe1.98–4.851.33–4.443.31–9.29safer1.59–5.240.91–4.872.50–10.11
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.30 0.33–2.27 0.08–2.52 | 1.75 0.90–2.61 0.67–2.83 | 3.05 1.23–4.87 0.75–5.35 | 28% 23% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.31 2.45–6.17 1.96–6.66 | 5.11 3.37–6.85 2.90–7.32 | 9.42 5.81–13.02 4.86–13.98 | 33% 54% |
| Total shots | 13.65 9.73–17.58 8.64–18.67 | 14.45 10.89–18.02 9.93–18.98 | 28.11 20.62–35.60 18.57–37.65 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 8.72 5.78–11.67 4.95–12.50 | 9.80 7.12–12.48 6.38–13.22 | 18.52 12.90–24.15 11.33–25.71 | 36% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 4.21 2.33–6.09 1.78–6.63 | 4.21 2.55–5.86 2.06–6.35 | 8.41 4.88–11.95 3.84–12.99 | 43% 14% 43% |
| Corners | 4.90 2.69–7.12 2.12–7.69 | 5.36 3.36–7.36 2.82–7.89 | 10.26 6.05–14.47 4.94–15.58 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 46.35 39.56–53.14 37.89–54.81 | 55.12 48.33–61.90 46.66–63.57 | — | 28% 68% |
| Passes | 433 366–500 347–518 | 505 439–572 421–589 | 938 805–1072 769–1108 | 27% 73% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.67 62.64–70.70 61.35–71.99 | 74.81 70.48–79.13 69.17–80.44 | — | 13% 84% |
| Fouls | 12.68 9.84–15.51 9.08–16.27 | 11.76 8.81–14.70 8.06–15.45 | 24.43 18.65–30.21 17.15–31.72 | 53% 39% |
| Offsides | 1.60 0.44–2.77 0.14–3.07 | 1.97 0.87–3.06 0.58–3.35 | 3.57 1.32–5.82 0.73–6.41 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.12 1.08–3.17 0.81–3.44 | 1.98 0.85–3.11 0.56–3.40 | 4.11 1.93–6.29 1.37–6.84 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.41 1.98–4.85 1.59–5.24 | 2.89 1.33–4.44 0.91–4.87 | 6.30 3.31–9.29 2.50–10.11 | 50% 16% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+