La Liga·Regular Season - 35·
La Liga·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
24%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.682.81safe0.16–2.100.82–2.530.98–4.63safer0.00–2.350.60–2.760.50–5.11
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.754.778.53safe1.89–5.623.03–6.514.92–12.13safer1.40–6.112.56–6.983.97–13.09
Total shots
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7914.2626.05safe7.87–15.7210.70–17.8218.57–33.54safer6.78–16.819.74–18.7816.51–35.59
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction7.778.8616.62safe4.82–10.716.17–11.5411.00–22.24safer3.99–11.545.44–12.279.43–23.81
Blocked shots
25%
13%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.204.517.71safe1.32–5.082.86–6.174.18–11.25safer0.78–5.632.37–6.663.14–12.28
Corners
28%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction4.125.379.49safe1.90–6.333.37–7.375.28–13.71safer1.33–6.902.84–7.914.17–14.81
Possession %
21%
76%
homeawayprediction44.0456.89safe37.25–50.8350.11–63.68safer35.58–52.5048.44–65.35
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction384469852safe316–451402–535719–986safer298–469385–553683–1022
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction62.2072.91safe58.17–66.2368.59–77.24safer56.88–67.5267.28–78.55
Fouls
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2312.7925.03safe9.40–15.079.85–15.7419.25–30.81safer8.64–15.839.10–16.4917.74–32.32
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.453.35safe0.74–3.060.36–2.551.10–5.61safer0.44–3.360.07–2.830.51–6.20
Yellow cards
47%
20%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction2.311.924.24safe1.27–3.360.79–3.052.06–6.42safer1.00–3.630.50–3.341.50–6.97
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.090.22safe0.00–0.290.00–0.270.00–0.56safer0.00–0.440.00–0.410.00–0.85
GK saves
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.292.716.01safe1.86–4.731.16–4.273.02–9.00safer1.47–5.120.73–4.692.20–9.81
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.68 0.82–2.53 0.60–2.76 | 2.81 0.98–4.63 0.50–5.11 | 26% 24% 50% |
| Shots on target | 3.75 1.89–5.62 1.40–6.11 | 4.77 3.03–6.51 2.56–6.98 | 8.53 4.92–12.13 3.97–13.09 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.79 7.87–15.72 6.78–16.81 | 14.26 10.70–17.82 9.74–18.78 | 26.05 18.57–33.54 16.51–35.59 | 28% 65% |
| Shots in box | 7.77 4.82–10.71 3.99–11.54 | 8.86 6.17–11.54 5.44–12.27 | 16.62 11.00–22.24 9.43–23.81 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.20 1.32–5.08 0.78–5.63 | 4.51 2.86–6.17 2.37–6.66 | 7.71 4.18–11.25 3.14–12.28 | 25% 13% 61% |
| Corners | 4.12 1.90–6.33 1.33–6.90 | 5.37 3.37–7.37 2.84–7.91 | 9.49 5.28–13.71 4.17–14.81 | 28% 60% |
| Possession % | 44.04 37.25–50.83 35.58–52.50 | 56.89 50.11–63.68 48.44–65.35 | — | 21% 76% |
| Passes | 384 316–451 298–469 | 469 402–535 385–553 | 852 719–986 683–1022 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 62.20 58.17–66.23 56.88–67.52 | 72.91 68.59–77.24 67.28–78.55 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 12.23 9.40–15.07 8.64–15.83 | 12.79 9.85–15.74 9.10–16.49 | 25.03 19.25–30.81 17.74–32.32 | 42% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.36 | 1.45 0.36–2.55 0.07–2.83 | 3.35 1.10–5.61 0.51–6.20 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.31 1.27–3.36 1.00–3.63 | 1.92 0.79–3.05 0.50–3.34 | 4.24 2.06–6.42 1.50–6.97 | 47% 20% 33% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.22 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.85 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.29 1.86–4.73 1.47–5.12 | 2.71 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.69 | 6.01 3.02–9.00 2.20–9.81 | 51% 16% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.