La Liga·Regular Season - 35·
La Liga·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
26%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.221.412.63safe0.25–2.190.55–2.260.81–4.45safer0.00–2.440.32–2.490.33–4.93
Shots on target
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.494.758.24safe1.62–5.353.01–6.504.63–11.84safer1.13–5.842.55–6.963.68–12.80
Total shots
16%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3714.9325.30safe6.44–14.2911.37–18.5017.81–32.79safer5.35–15.3810.41–19.4515.76–34.84
Shots in box
22%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction6.789.3616.14safe3.84–9.726.68–12.0410.52–21.77safer3.01–10.555.95–12.788.95–23.33
Blocked shots
28%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.763.746.50safe0.88–4.642.09–5.392.97–10.04safer0.33–5.191.60–5.891.93–11.07
Corners
29%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction4.255.449.69safe2.04–6.463.44–7.445.47–13.90safer1.46–7.042.90–7.974.37–15.01
Possession %
60%
36%
homeawayprediction52.7547.54safe45.96–59.5440.76–54.33safer44.29–61.2139.09–56.00
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction485404889safe418–552337–470755–1022safer400–570320–488719–1058
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction66.6370.31safe62.60–70.6665.99–74.64safer61.31–71.9564.68–75.95
Fouls
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5613.7727.34safe10.73–16.4010.83–16.7221.55–33.12safer9.97–17.1610.08–17.4720.05–34.62
Offsides
24%
18%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.742.674.41safe0.58–2.901.58–3.762.16–6.66safer0.28–3.201.29–4.051.57–7.25
Yellow cards
45%
19%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.542.284.82safe1.49–3.591.16–3.412.65–7.00safer1.22–3.860.86–3.702.09–7.56
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.110.24safe0.00–0.290.00–0.300.00–0.59safer0.00–0.440.00–0.430.00–0.87
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.282.335.61safe1.84–4.710.77–3.892.62–8.60safer1.45–5.100.35–4.311.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.22 0.25–2.19 0.00–2.44 | 1.41 0.55–2.26 0.32–2.49 | 2.63 0.81–4.45 0.33–4.93 | 33% 26% 41% |
| Shots on target | 3.49 1.62–5.35 1.13–5.84 | 4.75 3.01–6.50 2.55–6.96 | 8.24 4.63–11.84 3.68–12.80 | 27% 60% |
| Total shots | 10.37 6.44–14.29 5.35–15.38 | 14.93 11.37–18.50 10.41–19.45 | 25.30 17.81–32.79 15.76–34.84 | 16% 79% |
| Shots in box | 6.78 3.84–9.72 3.01–10.55 | 9.36 6.68–12.04 5.95–12.78 | 16.14 10.52–21.77 8.95–23.33 | 22% 70% |
| Blocked shots | 2.76 0.88–4.64 0.33–5.19 | 3.74 2.09–5.39 1.60–5.89 | 6.50 2.97–10.04 1.93–11.07 | 28% 15% 57% |
| Corners | 4.25 2.04–6.46 1.46–7.04 | 5.44 3.44–7.44 2.90–7.97 | 9.69 5.47–13.90 4.37–15.01 | 29% 59% |
| Possession % | 52.75 45.96–59.54 44.29–61.21 | 47.54 40.76–54.33 39.09–56.00 | — | 60% 36% |
| Passes | 485 418–552 400–570 | 404 337–470 320–488 | 889 755–1022 719–1058 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.63 62.60–70.66 61.31–71.95 | 70.31 65.99–74.64 64.68–75.95 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 13.56 10.73–16.40 9.97–17.16 | 13.77 10.83–16.72 10.08–17.47 | 27.34 21.55–33.12 20.05–34.62 | 45% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.74 0.58–2.90 0.28–3.20 | 2.67 1.58–3.76 1.29–4.05 | 4.41 2.16–6.66 1.57–7.25 | 24% 18% 58% |
| Yellow cards | 2.54 1.49–3.59 1.22–3.86 | 2.28 1.16–3.41 0.86–3.70 | 4.82 2.65–7.00 2.09–7.56 | 45% 19% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.28 1.84–4.71 1.45–5.10 | 2.33 0.77–3.89 0.35–4.31 | 5.61 2.62–8.60 1.80–9.41 | 57% 16% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+