La Liga·Regular Season - 35·
La Liga·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
25%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.492.94safe0.48–2.420.64–2.351.12–4.76safer0.23–2.670.41–2.570.64–5.24
Shots on target
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.064.489.54safe3.19–6.922.74–6.225.93–13.14safer2.71–7.412.27–6.694.98–14.10
Total shots
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1512.8829.03safe12.22–20.079.32–16.4421.54–36.51safer11.13–21.168.36–17.4019.49–38.56
Shots in box
50%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.858.3917.24safe5.91–11.795.71–11.0711.61–22.86safer5.08–12.624.97–11.8110.05–24.43
Blocked shots
55%
14%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.317.47safe2.28–6.051.66–4.963.94–11.01safer1.74–6.591.16–5.452.90–12.04
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.814.8210.63safe3.60–8.032.82–6.826.42–14.84safer3.02–8.602.29–7.355.31–15.95
Possession %
46%
50%
homeawayprediction50.0450.87safe43.25–56.8444.08–57.65safer41.58–58.5042.41–59.33
Passes
60%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction486455942safe419–554389–522808–1075safer401–572371–539772–1111
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction69.1872.21safe65.15–73.2167.89–76.53safer63.86–74.5066.58–77.84
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7111.3523.06safe8.87–14.558.41–14.3017.28–28.85safer8.12–15.307.66–15.0515.78–30.35
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.713.41safe0.53–2.860.62–2.801.15–5.66safer0.23–3.160.33–3.090.56–6.25
Yellow cards
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.703.61safe0.86–2.960.57–2.831.43–5.79safer0.59–3.220.28–3.120.87–6.34
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.100.20safe0.00–0.260.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.420.00–0.83
GK saves
30%
16%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction2.723.506.22safe1.29–4.161.94–5.063.23–9.22safer0.90–4.551.52–5.482.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.49 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.57 | 2.94 1.12–4.76 0.64–5.24 | 37% 25% 39% |
| Shots on target | 5.06 3.19–6.92 2.71–7.41 | 4.48 2.74–6.22 2.27–6.69 | 9.54 5.93–13.14 4.98–14.10 | 51% 36% |
| Total shots | 16.15 12.22–20.07 11.13–21.16 | 12.88 9.32–16.44 8.36–17.40 | 29.03 21.54–36.51 19.49–38.56 | 70% 24% |
| Shots in box | 8.85 5.91–11.79 5.08–12.62 | 8.39 5.71–11.07 4.97–11.81 | 17.24 11.61–22.86 10.05–24.43 | 50% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.28–6.05 1.74–6.59 | 3.31 1.66–4.96 1.16–5.45 | 7.47 3.94–11.01 2.90–12.04 | 55% 14% 31% |
| Corners | 5.81 3.60–8.03 3.02–8.60 | 4.82 2.82–6.82 2.29–7.35 | 10.63 6.42–14.84 5.31–15.95 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 50.04 43.25–56.84 41.58–58.50 | 50.87 44.08–57.65 42.41–59.33 | — | 46% 50% |
| Passes | 486 419–554 401–572 | 455 389–522 371–539 | 942 808–1075 772–1111 | 60% 40% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.18 65.15–73.21 63.86–74.50 | 72.21 67.89–76.53 66.58–77.84 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 11.71 8.87–14.55 8.12–15.30 | 11.35 8.41–14.30 7.66–15.05 | 23.06 17.28–28.85 15.78–30.35 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.53–2.86 0.23–3.16 | 1.71 0.62–2.80 0.33–3.09 | 3.41 1.15–5.66 0.56–6.25 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.91 0.86–2.96 0.59–3.22 | 1.70 0.57–2.83 0.28–3.12 | 3.61 1.43–5.79 0.87–6.34 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.20 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.72 1.29–4.16 0.90–4.55 | 3.50 1.94–5.06 1.52–5.48 | 6.22 3.23–9.22 2.42–10.03 | 30% 16% 54% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+