La Liga·Regular Season - 35·
La Liga·Regular Season - 35·Predicted match statistics
Goals
46%
24%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.272.88safe0.64–2.580.41–2.121.05–4.70safer0.39–2.830.18–2.350.58–5.18
Shots on target
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.169.43safe3.41–7.132.41–5.905.82–13.03safer2.92–7.621.95–6.364.87–13.99
Total shots
75%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2511.3526.61safe11.33–19.187.79–14.9219.12–34.09safer10.24–20.276.83–15.8817.07–36.15
Shots in box
67%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.987.5917.57safe7.04–12.934.91–10.2711.95–23.20safer6.21–13.764.17–11.0110.38–24.76
Blocked shots
63%
13%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction4.232.847.08safe2.35–6.111.19–4.503.54–10.61safer1.81–6.660.70–4.992.50–11.65
Corners
66%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction5.813.999.79safe3.59–8.021.99–5.995.58–14.01safer3.02–8.591.45–6.524.47–15.11
Possession %
74%
23%
homeawayprediction55.7544.02safe48.96–62.5437.23–50.80safer47.29–64.2135.56–52.47
Passes
86%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction555424979safe488–623358–490846–1113safer470–641340–508810–1149
Pass accuracy %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction75.6071.26safe71.57–79.6366.94–75.59safer70.27–80.9265.63–76.89
Fouls
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7312.8924.62safe8.90–14.579.94–15.8318.84–30.40safer8.14–15.339.19–16.5817.33–31.91
Offsides
41%
23%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.543.22safe0.51–2.830.45–2.640.96–5.47safer0.21–3.130.16–2.930.37–6.06
Yellow cards
28%
20%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction1.642.273.91safe0.59–2.691.14–3.401.73–6.09safer0.33–2.960.85–3.691.17–6.65
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.18safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.81
GK saves
29%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.663.486.14safe1.22–4.091.92–5.033.14–9.13safer0.83–4.481.50–5.462.33–9.94
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.61 0.64–2.58 0.39–2.83 | 1.27 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 2.88 1.05–4.70 0.58–5.18 | 46% 24% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.27 3.41–7.13 2.92–7.62 | 4.16 2.41–5.90 1.95–6.36 | 9.43 5.82–13.03 4.87–13.99 | 58% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.25 11.33–19.18 10.24–20.27 | 11.35 7.79–14.92 6.83–15.88 | 26.61 19.12–34.09 17.07–36.15 | 75% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.98 7.04–12.93 6.21–13.76 | 7.59 4.91–10.27 4.17–11.01 | 17.57 11.95–23.20 10.38–24.76 | 67% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.23 2.35–6.11 1.81–6.66 | 2.84 1.19–4.50 0.70–4.99 | 7.08 3.54–10.61 2.50–11.65 | 63% 13% 24% |
| Corners | 5.81 3.59–8.02 3.02–8.59 | 3.99 1.99–5.99 1.45–6.52 | 9.79 5.58–14.01 4.47–15.11 | 66% 23% |
| Possession % | 55.75 48.96–62.54 47.29–64.21 | 44.02 37.23–50.80 35.56–52.47 | — | 74% 23% |
| Passes | 555 488–623 470–641 | 424 358–490 340–508 | 979 846–1113 810–1149 | 86% 14% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.60 71.57–79.63 70.27–80.92 | 71.26 66.94–75.59 65.63–76.89 | — | 69% 27% |
| Fouls | 11.73 8.90–14.57 8.14–15.33 | 12.89 9.94–15.83 9.19–16.58 | 24.62 18.84–30.40 17.33–31.91 | 37% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.51–2.83 0.21–3.13 | 1.54 0.45–2.64 0.16–2.93 | 3.22 0.96–5.47 0.37–6.06 | 41% 23% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.64 0.59–2.69 0.33–2.96 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 3.91 1.73–6.09 1.17–6.65 | 28% 20% 52% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.66 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.48 1.92–5.03 1.50–5.46 | 6.14 3.14–9.13 2.33–9.94 | 29% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.