La Liga·Regular Season - 36·
La Liga·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
28%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.281.122.40safe0.31–2.250.27–1.980.58–4.23safer0.06–2.500.04–2.210.10–4.70
Shots on target
52%
14%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction4.153.537.68safe2.29–6.011.78–5.274.07–11.28safer1.80–6.501.32–5.733.12–12.24
Total shots
62%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0210.9924.01safe9.09–16.947.43–14.5616.53–31.50safer8.00–18.036.47–15.5214.48–33.55
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction7.866.9814.85safe4.92–10.814.30–9.669.22–20.47safer4.09–11.643.57–10.407.66–22.04
Blocked shots
51%
16%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.492.936.42safe1.61–5.371.27–4.582.88–9.95safer1.06–5.920.78–5.071.85–10.99
Corners
60%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction5.394.129.51safe3.18–7.612.12–6.125.30–13.72safer2.61–8.181.58–6.654.19–14.83
Possession %
85%
homeawayprediction58.7440.27safe51.95–65.5333.49–47.06safer50.28–67.2031.81–48.73
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction542366908safe475–609300–433774–1042safer457–627282–450739–1077
Pass accuracy %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction71.1567.95safe67.12–75.1863.62–72.27safer65.83–76.4762.31–73.58
Fouls
35%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction11.8213.3125.13safe8.98–14.6610.36–16.2519.35–30.91safer8.22–15.419.62–17.0017.84–32.41
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.753.71safe0.80–3.120.65–2.841.45–5.96safer0.50–3.420.36–3.130.86–6.55
Yellow cards
34%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.942.264.20safe0.89–2.991.13–3.392.03–6.38safer0.63–3.260.84–3.681.47–6.94
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
39%
17%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.782.915.69safe1.35–4.221.35–4.462.70–8.68safer0.96–4.610.93–4.891.89–9.50
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.28 0.31–2.25 0.06–2.50 | 1.12 0.27–1.98 0.04–2.21 | 2.40 0.58–4.23 0.10–4.70 | 40% 28% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.29–6.01 1.80–6.50 | 3.53 1.78–5.27 1.32–5.73 | 7.68 4.07–11.28 3.12–12.24 | 52% 14% 34% |
| Total shots | 13.02 9.09–16.94 8.00–18.03 | 10.99 7.43–14.56 6.47–15.52 | 24.01 16.53–31.50 14.48–33.55 | 62% 30% |
| Shots in box | 7.86 4.92–10.81 4.09–11.64 | 6.98 4.30–9.66 3.57–10.40 | 14.85 9.22–20.47 7.66–22.04 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.49 1.61–5.37 1.06–5.92 | 2.93 1.27–4.58 0.78–5.07 | 6.42 2.88–9.95 1.85–10.99 | 51% 16% 33% |
| Corners | 5.39 3.18–7.61 2.61–8.18 | 4.12 2.12–6.12 1.58–6.65 | 9.51 5.30–13.72 4.19–14.83 | 60% 28% |
| Possession % | 58.74 51.95–65.53 50.28–67.20 | 40.27 33.49–47.06 31.81–48.73 | — | 85% |
| Passes | 542 475–609 457–627 | 366 300–433 282–450 | 908 774–1042 739–1077 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.15 67.12–75.18 65.83–76.47 | 67.95 63.62–72.27 62.31–73.58 | — | 64% 32% |
| Fouls | 11.82 8.98–14.66 8.22–15.41 | 13.31 10.36–16.25 9.62–17.00 | 25.13 19.35–30.91 17.84–32.41 | 35% 58% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 1.75 0.65–2.84 0.36–3.13 | 3.71 1.45–5.96 0.86–6.55 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.94 0.89–2.99 0.63–3.26 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.20 2.03–6.38 1.47–6.94 | 34% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.78 1.35–4.22 0.96–4.61 | 2.91 1.35–4.46 0.93–4.89 | 5.69 2.70–8.68 1.89–9.50 | 39% 17% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+