La Liga·Regular Season - 36·
La Liga·Regular Season - 36·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.492.68safe0.22–2.160.64–2.340.86–4.50safer0.00–2.410.41–2.570.38–4.98
Shots on target
35%
13%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction4.154.838.98safe2.29–6.013.08–6.575.37–12.58safer1.80–6.502.62–7.034.42–13.54
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8912.4325.32safe8.96–16.818.86–15.9917.83–32.80safer7.87–17.917.91–16.9515.78–34.85
Shots in box
45%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction8.298.2916.58safe5.35–11.245.61–10.9710.96–22.21safer4.52–12.074.87–11.719.39–23.77
Blocked shots
42%
15%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.543.597.13safe1.66–5.421.94–5.243.59–10.66safer1.11–5.961.44–5.732.56–11.70
Corners
40%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction4.704.969.66safe2.49–6.912.96–6.965.45–13.87safer1.91–7.492.43–7.494.34–14.98
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction42.7458.94safe35.95–49.5352.15–65.72safer34.28–51.2050.48–67.39
Passes
89%
homeawaytotalprediction369515884safe302–436448–581750–1017safer284–454431–599714–1053
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction65.1175.68safe61.08–69.1471.35–80.00safer59.79–70.4370.05–81.31
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2014.1527.36safe10.36–16.0411.21–17.1021.57–33.14safer9.61–16.8010.46–17.8520.07–34.64
Offsides
31%
21%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.612.043.65safe0.45–2.770.94–3.131.39–5.90safer0.15–3.070.66–3.420.80–6.49
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.284.52safe1.19–3.291.15–3.412.34–6.70safer0.92–3.560.86–3.701.78–7.25
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.87
GK saves
45%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.062.875.94safe1.63–4.501.32–4.432.94–8.93safer1.24–4.890.89–4.852.13–9.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.49 0.64–2.34 0.41–2.57 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 4.15 2.29–6.01 1.80–6.50 | 4.83 3.08–6.57 2.62–7.03 | 8.98 5.37–12.58 4.42–13.54 | 35% 13% 52% |
| Total shots | 12.89 8.96–16.81 7.87–17.91 | 12.43 8.86–15.99 7.91–16.95 | 25.32 17.83–32.80 15.78–34.85 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 8.29 5.35–11.24 4.52–12.07 | 8.29 5.61–10.97 4.87–11.71 | 16.58 10.96–22.21 9.39–23.77 | 45% 45% |
| Blocked shots | 3.54 1.66–5.42 1.11–5.96 | 3.59 1.94–5.24 1.44–5.73 | 7.13 3.59–10.66 2.56–11.70 | 42% 15% 43% |
| Corners | 4.70 2.49–6.91 1.91–7.49 | 4.96 2.96–6.96 2.43–7.49 | 9.66 5.45–13.87 4.34–14.98 | 40% 47% |
| Possession % | 42.74 35.95–49.53 34.28–51.20 | 58.94 52.15–65.72 50.48–67.39 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 369 302–436 284–454 | 515 448–581 431–599 | 884 750–1017 714–1053 | 89% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.11 61.08–69.14 59.79–70.43 | 75.68 71.35–80.00 70.05–81.31 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 13.20 10.36–16.04 9.61–16.80 | 14.15 11.21–17.10 10.46–17.85 | 27.36 21.57–33.14 20.07–34.64 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 2.04 0.94–3.13 0.66–3.42 | 3.65 1.39–5.90 0.80–6.49 | 31% 21% 48% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.29 0.92–3.56 | 2.28 1.15–3.41 0.86–3.70 | 4.52 2.34–6.70 1.78–7.25 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.63–4.50 1.24–4.89 | 2.87 1.32–4.43 0.89–4.85 | 5.94 2.94–8.93 2.13–9.74 | 45% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+