La Liga·Regular Season - 37·
La Liga·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
17%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction0.912.403.31safe0.00–1.881.54–3.251.49–5.13safer0.00–2.131.31–3.481.01–5.61
Shots on target
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.416.259.67safe1.55–5.284.51–8.006.06–13.27safer1.06–5.774.04–8.465.11–14.23
Total shots
21%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1415.8327.97safe8.22–16.0712.27–19.3920.49–35.46safer7.13–17.1611.31–20.3518.43–37.51
Shots in box
16%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction7.2511.0318.27safe4.30–10.198.35–13.7112.65–23.90safer3.47–11.027.61–14.4511.08–25.46
Blocked shots
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.084.707.78safe1.19–4.963.05–6.364.24–11.32safer0.65–5.502.56–6.853.21–12.35
Corners
19%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction3.826.009.82safe1.61–6.034.00–8.005.61–14.03safer1.03–6.613.47–8.544.50–15.14
Possession %
93%
homeawayprediction37.6363.36safe30.84–44.4256.57–70.14safer29.17–46.0954.90–71.81
Passes
97%
homeawaytotalprediction343575918safe276–410509–642784–1052safer258–428491–659749–1087
Pass accuracy %
94%
homeawayprediction63.6176.30safe59.58–67.6471.98–80.63safer58.29–68.9370.67–81.93
Fouls
70%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2011.0925.30safe11.37–17.048.15–14.0419.52–31.08safer10.61–17.807.40–14.7918.01–32.58
Offsides
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.802.344.14safe0.64–2.961.25–3.431.88–6.39safer0.34–3.260.96–3.721.29–6.98
Yellow cards
54%
19%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction2.481.774.26safe1.43–3.530.64–2.902.08–6.43safer1.17–3.800.35–3.191.52–6.99
Red cards
13%
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.150.100.25safe0.00–0.320.00–0.280.00–0.60safer0.00–0.460.00–0.420.00–0.88
GK saves
66%
14%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.992.456.45safe2.56–5.430.90–4.013.45–9.44safer2.17–5.820.47–4.432.64–10.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 2.40 1.54–3.25 1.31–3.48 | 3.31 1.49–5.13 1.01–5.61 | 17% 70% |
| Shots on target | 3.41 1.55–5.28 1.06–5.77 | 6.25 4.51–8.00 4.04–8.46 | 9.67 6.06–13.27 5.11–14.23 | 14% 78% |
| Total shots | 12.14 8.22–16.07 7.13–17.16 | 15.83 12.27–19.39 11.31–20.35 | 27.97 20.49–35.46 18.43–37.51 | 21% 73% |
| Shots in box | 7.25 4.30–10.19 3.47–11.02 | 11.03 8.35–13.71 7.61–14.45 | 18.27 12.65–23.90 11.08–25.46 | 16% 78% |
| Blocked shots | 3.08 1.19–4.96 0.65–5.50 | 4.70 3.05–6.36 2.56–6.85 | 7.78 4.24–11.32 3.21–12.35 | 22% 66% |
| Corners | 3.82 1.61–6.03 1.03–6.61 | 6.00 4.00–8.00 3.47–8.54 | 9.82 5.61–14.03 4.50–15.14 | 19% 70% |
| Possession % | 37.63 30.84–44.42 29.17–46.09 | 63.36 56.57–70.14 54.90–71.81 | — | 93% |
| Passes | 343 276–410 258–428 | 575 509–642 491–659 | 918 784–1052 749–1087 | 97% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.61 59.58–67.64 58.29–68.93 | 76.30 71.98–80.63 70.67–81.93 | — | 94% |
| Fouls | 14.20 11.37–17.04 10.61–17.80 | 11.09 8.15–14.04 7.40–14.79 | 25.30 19.52–31.08 18.01–32.58 | 70% 24% |
| Offsides | 1.80 0.64–2.96 0.34–3.26 | 2.34 1.25–3.43 0.96–3.72 | 4.14 1.88–6.39 1.29–6.98 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.48 1.43–3.53 1.17–3.80 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 4.26 2.08–6.43 1.52–6.99 | 54% 19% 27% |
| Red cards | 0.15 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.10 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.42 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 13% 79% |
| GK saves | 3.99 2.56–5.43 2.17–5.82 | 2.45 0.90–4.01 0.47–4.43 | 6.45 3.45–9.44 2.64–10.25 | 66% 14% 21% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+