La Liga·Regular Season - 37·
La Liga·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.052.85safe0.84–2.770.19–1.901.03–4.67safer0.58–3.020.00–2.130.55–5.15
Shots on target
71%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction5.623.489.09safe3.75–7.481.73–5.225.49–12.70safer3.26–7.971.27–5.684.53–13.65
Total shots
87%
homeawaytotalprediction16.159.9926.14safe12.23–20.076.43–13.5518.65–33.63safer11.13–21.175.47–14.5116.60–35.68
Shots in box
82%
homeawaytotalprediction10.726.4717.18safe7.77–13.663.79–9.1511.56–22.81safer6.94–14.493.05–9.899.99–24.37
Blocked shots
64%
13%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.312.877.18safe2.43–6.201.21–4.523.65–10.72safer1.89–6.740.72–5.012.61–11.75
Corners
70%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction6.063.879.94safe3.85–8.281.87–5.875.72–14.15safer3.28–8.851.34–6.414.62–15.26
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.0446.26safe47.25–60.8339.48–53.05safer45.58–62.5037.80–54.72
Passes
76%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction536451987safe469–604384–517853–1121safer451–622367–535818–1156
Pass accuracy %
54%
41%
homeawayprediction74.8073.50safe70.77–78.8369.18–77.82safer69.48–80.1267.87–79.13
Fouls
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction10.3211.2121.53safe7.48–13.168.26–14.1515.75–27.31safer6.73–13.917.51–14.9014.24–28.81
Offsides
72%
14%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction3.101.354.45safe1.94–4.260.26–2.442.20–6.70safer1.64–4.560.00–2.731.61–7.29
Yellow cards
33%
23%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.793.29safe0.45–2.550.66–2.921.11–5.47safer0.19–2.820.37–3.210.55–6.03
Red cards
86%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.080.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.270.00–0.50safer0.00–0.380.00–0.400.00–0.79
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.303.495.78safe0.86–3.731.93–5.042.79–8.77safer0.47–4.121.51–5.471.98–9.59
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.80 0.84–2.77 0.58–3.02 | 1.05 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.85 1.03–4.67 0.55–5.15 | 55% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 5.62 3.75–7.48 3.26–7.97 | 3.48 1.73–5.22 1.27–5.68 | 9.09 5.49–12.70 4.53–13.65 | 71% 19% |
| Total shots | 16.15 12.23–20.07 11.13–21.17 | 9.99 6.43–13.55 5.47–14.51 | 26.14 18.65–33.63 16.60–35.68 | 87% |
| Shots in box | 10.72 7.77–13.66 6.94–14.49 | 6.47 3.79–9.15 3.05–9.89 | 17.18 11.56–22.81 9.99–24.37 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 4.31 2.43–6.20 1.89–6.74 | 2.87 1.21–4.52 0.72–5.01 | 7.18 3.65–10.72 2.61–11.75 | 64% 13% 23% |
| Corners | 6.06 3.85–8.28 3.28–8.85 | 3.87 1.87–5.87 1.34–6.41 | 9.94 5.72–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 70% 19% |
| Possession % | 54.04 47.25–60.83 45.58–62.50 | 46.26 39.48–53.05 37.80–54.72 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 536 469–604 451–622 | 451 384–517 367–535 | 987 853–1121 818–1156 | 76% 24% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.80 70.77–78.83 69.48–80.12 | 73.50 69.18–77.82 67.87–79.13 | — | 54% 41% |
| Fouls | 10.32 7.48–13.16 6.73–13.91 | 11.21 8.26–14.15 7.51–14.90 | 21.53 15.75–27.31 14.24–28.81 | 38% 53% |
| Offsides | 3.10 1.94–4.26 1.64–4.56 | 1.35 0.26–2.44 0.00–2.73 | 4.45 2.20–6.70 1.61–7.29 | 72% 14% 13% |
| Yellow cards | 1.50 0.45–2.55 0.19–2.82 | 1.79 0.66–2.92 0.37–3.21 | 3.29 1.11–5.47 0.55–6.03 | 33% 23% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.08 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.40 | 0.16 0.00–0.50 0.00–0.79 | 86% |
| GK saves | 2.30 0.86–3.73 0.47–4.12 | 3.49 1.93–5.04 1.51–5.47 | 5.78 2.79–8.77 1.98–9.59 | 24% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.