La Liga·Regular Season - 37·
La Liga·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.342.80safe0.49–2.420.49–2.200.97–4.62safer0.23–2.670.26–2.430.49–5.10
Shots on target
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.894.599.47safe3.03–6.752.84–6.335.87–13.08safer2.54–7.242.38–6.794.91–14.03
Total shots
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.5212.5927.11safe10.60–18.459.02–16.1519.62–34.60safer9.51–19.548.06–17.1117.57–36.65
Shots in box
59%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction9.518.0617.57safe6.57–12.455.38–10.7411.95–23.20safer5.74–13.284.65–11.4810.38–24.76
Blocked shots
42%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.134.188.31safe2.25–6.022.52–5.834.77–11.85safer1.71–6.562.03–6.323.74–12.88
Corners
56%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction5.474.469.94safe3.26–7.692.46–6.465.73–14.15safer2.69–8.261.93–7.004.62–15.26
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction52.4148.39safe45.62–59.2041.61–55.18safer43.95–60.8739.94–56.85
Passes
75%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction507426933safe440–574360–493799–1067safer422–592342–510764–1103
Pass accuracy %
34%
61%
homeawayprediction68.3070.94safe64.27–72.3366.61–75.26safer62.98–73.6365.30–76.57
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction10.4210.7721.19safe7.58–13.267.83–13.7215.41–26.98safer6.83–14.017.08–14.4713.91–28.48
Offsides
55%
21%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction2.111.333.45safe0.95–3.270.24–2.431.19–5.70safer0.65–3.570.00–2.720.60–6.29
Yellow cards
41%
22%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.881.803.68safe0.83–2.920.67–2.931.50–5.85safer0.56–3.190.38–3.220.94–6.41
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.100.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.420.00–0.82
GK saves
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.993.186.17safe1.55–4.421.63–4.743.18–9.16safer1.16–4.811.20–5.162.36–9.97
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.49–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.34 0.49–2.20 0.26–2.43 | 2.80 0.97–4.62 0.49–5.10 | 40% 25% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.89 3.03–6.75 2.54–7.24 | 4.59 2.84–6.33 2.38–6.79 | 9.47 5.87–13.08 4.91–14.03 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Total shots | 14.52 10.60–18.45 9.51–19.54 | 12.59 9.02–16.15 8.06–17.11 | 27.11 19.62–34.60 17.57–36.65 | 61% 32% |
| Shots in box | 9.51 6.57–12.45 5.74–13.28 | 8.06 5.38–10.74 4.65–11.48 | 17.57 11.95–23.20 10.38–24.76 | 59% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 4.13 2.25–6.02 1.71–6.56 | 4.18 2.52–5.83 2.03–6.32 | 8.31 4.77–11.85 3.74–12.88 | 42% 14% 44% |
| Corners | 5.47 3.26–7.69 2.69–8.26 | 4.46 2.46–6.46 1.93–7.00 | 9.94 5.73–14.15 4.62–15.26 | 56% 31% |
| Possession % | 52.41 45.62–59.20 43.95–60.87 | 48.39 41.61–55.18 39.94–56.85 | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 507 440–574 422–592 | 426 360–493 342–510 | 933 799–1067 764–1103 | 75% 25% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.30 64.27–72.33 62.98–73.63 | 70.94 66.61–75.26 65.30–76.57 | — | 34% 61% |
| Fouls | 10.42 7.58–13.26 6.83–14.01 | 10.77 7.83–13.72 7.08–14.47 | 21.19 15.41–26.98 13.91–28.48 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.11 0.95–3.27 0.65–3.57 | 1.33 0.24–2.43 0.00–2.72 | 3.45 1.19–5.70 0.60–6.29 | 55% 21% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.88 0.83–2.92 0.56–3.19 | 1.80 0.67–2.93 0.38–3.22 | 3.68 1.50–5.85 0.94–6.41 | 41% 22% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.99 1.55–4.42 1.16–4.81 | 3.18 1.63–4.74 1.20–5.16 | 6.17 3.18–9.16 2.36–9.97 | 39% 16% 45% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+