La Liga·Regular Season - 37·
La Liga·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
41%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.491.322.81safe0.52–2.460.46–2.170.99–4.63safer0.27–2.710.23–2.400.51–5.11
Shots on target
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.745.189.92safe2.88–6.603.44–6.926.32–13.53safer2.39–7.092.97–7.395.36–14.48
Total shots
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5014.8027.30safe8.58–16.4311.24–18.3619.82–34.79safer7.49–17.5210.28–19.3217.77–36.84
Shots in box
38%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction8.739.5718.29safe5.78–11.676.89–12.2512.67–23.92safer4.96–12.506.15–12.9911.10–25.48
Blocked shots
40%
15%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.533.707.23safe1.65–5.412.04–5.353.69–10.76safer1.11–5.961.55–5.842.66–11.80
Corners
44%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction5.115.0810.19safe2.90–7.333.08–7.085.97–14.40safer2.33–7.902.54–7.614.87–15.51
Possession %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction53.6646.46safe46.87–60.4539.67–53.24safer45.20–62.1238.00–54.91
Passes
71%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction497430927safe430–565363–496793–1061safer412–583346–514758–1096
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction69.7772.12safe65.74–73.8067.80–76.45safer64.45–75.0966.49–77.76
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3512.3624.70safe9.51–15.189.41–15.3018.92–30.48safer8.75–15.948.66–16.0517.41–31.99
Offsides
34%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.404.47safe0.91–3.231.31–3.492.21–6.72safer0.61–3.531.02–3.781.62–7.31
Yellow cards
41%
21%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.031.953.98safe0.98–3.080.82–3.081.80–6.16safer0.71–3.340.53–3.371.24–6.71
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.100.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.420.00–0.84
GK saves
44%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.383.286.65safe1.94–4.811.72–4.833.66–9.65safer1.55–5.201.30–5.262.85–10.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.49 0.52–2.46 0.27–2.71 | 1.32 0.46–2.17 0.23–2.40 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.51–5.11 | 41% 25% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.74 2.88–6.60 2.39–7.09 | 5.18 3.44–6.92 2.97–7.39 | 9.92 6.32–13.53 5.36–14.48 | 38% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.50 8.58–16.43 7.49–17.52 | 14.80 11.24–18.36 10.28–19.32 | 27.30 19.82–34.79 17.77–36.84 | 30% 63% |
| Shots in box | 8.73 5.78–11.67 4.96–12.50 | 9.57 6.89–12.25 6.15–12.99 | 18.29 12.67–23.92 11.10–25.48 | 38% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.53 1.65–5.41 1.11–5.96 | 3.70 2.04–5.35 1.55–5.84 | 7.23 3.69–10.76 2.66–11.80 | 40% 15% 45% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.33 2.33–7.90 | 5.08 3.08–7.08 2.54–7.61 | 10.19 5.97–14.40 4.87–15.51 | 44% 43% |
| Possession % | 53.66 46.87–60.45 45.20–62.12 | 46.46 39.67–53.24 38.00–54.91 | — | 64% 31% |
| Passes | 497 430–565 412–583 | 430 363–496 346–514 | 927 793–1061 758–1096 | 71% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.77 65.74–73.80 64.45–75.09 | 72.12 67.80–76.45 66.49–77.76 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 12.35 9.51–15.18 8.75–15.94 | 12.36 9.41–15.30 8.66–16.05 | 24.70 18.92–30.48 17.41–31.99 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 2.07 0.91–3.23 0.61–3.53 | 2.40 1.31–3.49 1.02–3.78 | 4.47 2.21–6.72 1.62–7.31 | 34% 19% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.34 | 1.95 0.82–3.08 0.53–3.37 | 3.98 1.80–6.16 1.24–6.71 | 41% 21% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.38 1.94–4.81 1.55–5.20 | 3.28 1.72–4.83 1.30–5.26 | 6.65 3.66–9.65 2.85–10.46 | 44% 16% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+