La Liga·Regular Season - 37·
La Liga·Regular Season - 37·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
24%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.733.00safe0.30–2.240.88–2.591.18–4.83safer0.05–2.490.65–2.820.70–5.31
Shots on target
32%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction4.375.299.66safe2.51–6.243.54–7.036.06–13.27safer2.02–6.733.08–7.505.10–14.22
Total shots
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1015.1329.22safe10.17–18.0211.56–18.6921.74–36.71safer9.08–19.1110.60–19.6519.69–38.76
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction8.529.6118.13safe5.57–11.466.93–12.2912.50–23.75safer4.74–12.296.19–13.0310.94–25.32
Blocked shots
34%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.814.508.31safe1.92–5.692.85–6.154.77–11.84safer1.38–6.232.36–6.653.74–12.88
Corners
39%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.775.139.90safe2.55–6.983.13–7.135.68–14.11safer1.98–7.552.60–7.664.58–15.22
Possession %
19%
77%
homeawayprediction43.2456.79safe36.45–50.0350.00–63.57safer34.78–51.7048.33–65.24
Passes
17%
83%
homeawaytotalprediction420533954safe353–487467–600820–1087safer335–506449–617784–1123
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction66.4374.90safe62.40–70.4670.57–79.22safer61.11–71.7569.26–80.53
Fouls
60%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1910.5122.71safe9.36–15.037.57–13.4616.93–28.49safer8.60–15.796.82–14.2115.42–30.00
Offsides
59%
18%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction2.741.744.48safe1.58–3.900.64–2.832.23–6.73safer1.28–4.200.36–3.121.64–7.32
Yellow cards
49%
21%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.593.64safe1.00–3.100.46–2.721.47–5.82safer0.74–3.370.17–3.010.91–6.38
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.090.23safe0.00–0.300.00–0.280.00–0.58safer0.00–0.450.00–0.410.00–0.86
GK saves
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.623.116.73safe2.19–5.061.55–4.663.74–9.72safer1.80–5.451.12–5.092.93–10.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.73 0.88–2.59 0.65–2.82 | 3.00 1.18–4.83 0.70–5.31 | 28% 24% 48% |
| Shots on target | 4.37 2.51–6.24 2.02–6.73 | 5.29 3.54–7.03 3.08–7.50 | 9.66 6.06–13.27 5.10–14.22 | 32% 55% |
| Total shots | 14.10 10.17–18.02 9.08–19.11 | 15.13 11.56–18.69 10.60–19.65 | 29.22 21.74–36.71 19.69–38.76 | 39% 54% |
| Shots in box | 8.52 5.57–11.46 4.74–12.29 | 9.61 6.93–12.29 6.19–13.03 | 18.13 12.50–23.75 10.94–25.32 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.81 1.92–5.69 1.38–6.23 | 4.50 2.85–6.15 2.36–6.65 | 8.31 4.77–11.84 3.74–12.88 | 34% 14% 53% |
| Corners | 4.77 2.55–6.98 1.98–7.55 | 5.13 3.13–7.13 2.60–7.66 | 9.90 5.68–14.11 4.58–15.22 | 39% 48% |
| Possession % | 43.24 36.45–50.03 34.78–51.70 | 56.79 50.00–63.57 48.33–65.24 | — | 19% 77% |
| Passes | 420 353–487 335–506 | 533 467–600 449–617 | 954 820–1087 784–1123 | 17% 83% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.43 62.40–70.46 61.11–71.75 | 74.90 70.57–79.22 69.26–80.53 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 12.19 9.36–15.03 8.60–15.79 | 10.51 7.57–13.46 6.82–14.21 | 22.71 16.93–28.49 15.42–30.00 | 60% 32% |
| Offsides | 2.74 1.58–3.90 1.28–4.20 | 1.74 0.64–2.83 0.36–3.12 | 4.48 2.23–6.73 1.64–7.32 | 59% 18% 23% |
| Yellow cards | 2.05 1.00–3.10 0.74–3.37 | 1.59 0.46–2.72 0.17–3.01 | 3.64 1.47–5.82 0.91–6.38 | 49% 21% 30% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.62 2.19–5.06 1.80–5.45 | 3.11 1.55–4.66 1.12–5.09 | 6.73 3.74–9.72 2.93–10.53 | 50% 15% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.