La Liga·Regular Season - 38·
La Liga·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
34%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.562.96safe0.43–2.370.70–2.411.14–4.78safer0.18–2.620.48–2.640.66–5.26
Shots on target
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.794.979.75safe2.92–6.653.23–6.716.15–13.36safer2.43–7.142.76–7.185.19–14.31
Total shots
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7813.0425.82safe8.86–16.719.47–16.6018.33–33.31safer7.77–17.808.52–17.5616.28–35.36
Shots in box
35%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction8.319.4417.74safe5.36–11.256.76–12.1212.12–23.37safer4.53–12.086.02–12.8610.55–24.93
Blocked shots
47%
15%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.833.497.31safe1.95–5.711.83–5.143.78–10.85safer1.40–6.251.34–5.632.74–11.88
Corners
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.455.179.62safe2.24–6.673.17–7.175.41–13.84safer1.67–7.242.64–7.704.30–14.94
Possession %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction52.6948.49safe45.90–59.4841.71–55.28safer44.23–61.1540.04–56.95
Passes
66%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5284791007safe460–595413–545873–1140safer442–613395–563837–1176
Pass accuracy %
29%
66%
homeawayprediction71.9875.73safe67.95–76.0171.41–80.05safer66.66–77.3070.10–81.36
Fouls
28%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction10.1912.4722.66safe7.35–13.039.52–15.4116.87–28.44safer6.60–13.788.77–16.1615.37–29.94
Offsides
19%
17%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.844.37safe0.37–2.691.75–3.932.12–6.62safer0.07–2.991.46–4.221.53–7.21
Yellow cards
29%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.702.273.97safe0.65–2.751.15–3.401.79–6.15safer0.38–3.010.85–3.691.24–6.71
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.110.18safe0.00–0.230.00–0.300.00–0.53safer0.00–0.380.00–0.430.00–0.81
GK saves
41%
16%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction3.153.226.37safe1.71–4.591.66–4.773.38–9.36safer1.33–4.971.24–5.202.56–10.17
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.56 0.70–2.41 0.48–2.64 | 2.96 1.14–4.78 0.66–5.26 | 34% 24% 41% |
| Shots on target | 4.79 2.92–6.65 2.43–7.14 | 4.97 3.23–6.71 2.76–7.18 | 9.75 6.15–13.36 5.19–14.31 | 41% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.78 8.86–16.71 7.77–17.80 | 13.04 9.47–16.60 8.52–17.56 | 25.82 18.33–33.31 16.28–35.36 | 44% 48% |
| Shots in box | 8.31 5.36–11.25 4.53–12.08 | 9.44 6.76–12.12 6.02–12.86 | 17.74 12.12–23.37 10.55–24.93 | 35% 56% |
| Blocked shots | 3.83 1.95–5.71 1.40–6.25 | 3.49 1.83–5.14 1.34–5.63 | 7.31 3.78–10.85 2.74–11.88 | 47% 15% 38% |
| Corners | 4.45 2.24–6.67 1.67–7.24 | 5.17 3.17–7.17 2.64–7.70 | 9.62 5.41–13.84 4.30–14.94 | 35% 53% |
| Possession % | 52.69 45.90–59.48 44.23–61.15 | 48.49 41.71–55.28 40.04–56.95 | — | 57% 38% |
| Passes | 528 460–595 442–613 | 479 413–545 395–563 | 1007 873–1140 837–1176 | 66% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.98 67.95–76.01 66.66–77.30 | 75.73 71.41–80.05 70.10–81.36 | — | 29% 66% |
| Fouls | 10.19 7.35–13.03 6.60–13.78 | 12.47 9.52–15.41 8.77–16.16 | 22.66 16.87–28.44 15.37–29.94 | 28% 65% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.07–2.99 | 2.84 1.75–3.93 1.46–4.22 | 4.37 2.12–6.62 1.53–7.21 | 19% 17% 65% |
| Yellow cards | 1.70 0.65–2.75 0.38–3.01 | 2.27 1.15–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 3.97 1.79–6.15 1.24–6.71 | 29% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 3.15 1.71–4.59 1.33–4.97 | 3.22 1.66–4.77 1.24–5.20 | 6.37 3.38–9.36 2.56–10.17 | 41% 16% 43% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.