La Liga·Regular Season - 38·
La Liga·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
53%
22%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.263.21safe0.98–2.910.41–2.121.39–5.03safer0.73–3.170.18–2.350.91–5.51
Shots on target
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.483.999.46safe3.61–7.342.24–5.735.86–13.07safer3.12–7.831.78–6.204.90–14.02
Total shots
84%
homeawaytotalprediction16.1710.5926.76safe12.24–20.097.03–14.1519.27–34.25safer11.15–21.186.07–15.1117.22–36.30
Shots in box
68%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction9.787.3617.15safe6.84–12.734.68–10.0411.52–22.77safer6.01–13.563.94–10.789.96–24.34
Blocked shots
72%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction4.142.186.31safe2.26–6.020.52–3.832.78–9.85safer1.71–6.560.03–4.321.74–10.88
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.803.909.70safe3.59–8.021.90–5.905.49–13.92safer3.02–8.591.37–6.434.38–15.02
Possession %
76%
21%
homeawayprediction56.2943.41safe49.50–63.0836.63–50.20safer47.83–64.7534.96–51.87
Passes
83%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction526409935safe458–593343–476802–1069safer440–611326–493766–1105
Pass accuracy %
57%
38%
homeawayprediction69.9768.09safe65.94–74.0063.76–72.41safer64.65–75.2962.45–73.72
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3513.7827.13safe10.51–16.1910.83–16.7221.34–32.91safer9.75–16.9410.09–17.4719.84–34.41
Offsides
32%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.533.165.69safe1.37–3.692.07–4.253.44–7.95safer1.07–4.001.78–4.542.85–8.54
Yellow cards
32%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.504.53safe0.98–3.081.37–3.632.35–6.70safer0.71–3.341.08–3.921.79–7.26
Red cards
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.170.29safe0.00–0.280.00–0.360.00–0.63safer0.00–0.430.00–0.490.00–0.92
GK saves
22%
14%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction2.353.706.05safe0.91–3.782.14–5.253.05–9.04safer0.52–4.171.72–5.682.24–9.85
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.95 0.98–2.91 0.73–3.17 | 1.26 0.41–2.12 0.18–2.35 | 3.21 1.39–5.03 0.91–5.51 | 53% 22% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.48 3.61–7.34 3.12–7.83 | 3.99 2.24–5.73 1.78–6.20 | 9.46 5.86–13.07 4.90–14.02 | 63% 26% |
| Total shots | 16.17 12.24–20.09 11.15–21.18 | 10.59 7.03–14.15 6.07–15.11 | 26.76 19.27–34.25 17.22–36.30 | 84% |
| Shots in box | 9.78 6.84–12.73 6.01–13.56 | 7.36 4.68–10.04 3.94–10.78 | 17.15 11.52–22.77 9.96–24.34 | 68% 24% |
| Blocked shots | 4.14 2.26–6.02 1.71–6.56 | 2.18 0.52–3.83 0.03–4.32 | 6.31 2.78–9.85 1.74–10.88 | 72% 16% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.59–8.02 3.02–8.59 | 3.90 1.90–5.90 1.37–6.43 | 9.70 5.49–13.92 4.38–15.02 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 56.29 49.50–63.08 47.83–64.75 | 43.41 36.63–50.20 34.96–51.87 | — | 76% 21% |
| Passes | 526 458–593 440–611 | 409 343–476 326–493 | 935 802–1069 766–1105 | 83% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.97 65.94–74.00 64.65–75.29 | 68.09 63.76–72.41 62.45–73.72 | — | 57% 38% |
| Fouls | 13.35 10.51–16.19 9.75–16.94 | 13.78 10.83–16.72 10.09–17.47 | 27.13 21.34–32.91 19.84–34.41 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 2.53 1.37–3.69 1.07–4.00 | 3.16 2.07–4.25 1.78–4.54 | 5.69 3.44–7.95 2.85–8.54 | 32% 17% 52% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.34 | 2.50 1.37–3.63 1.08–3.92 | 4.53 2.35–6.70 1.79–7.26 | 32% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 77% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.35 0.91–3.78 0.52–4.17 | 3.70 2.14–5.25 1.72–5.68 | 6.05 3.05–9.04 2.24–9.85 | 22% 14% 63% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+