La Liga·Regular Season - 38·
La Liga·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
77%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction2.820.893.71safe1.85–3.780.04–1.751.88–5.53safer1.60–4.030.00–1.971.40–6.01
Shots on target
88%
homeawaytotalprediction8.073.5711.64safe6.21–9.941.83–5.318.04–15.25safer5.72–10.431.36–5.787.08–16.20
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction21.4010.3631.76safe17.48–25.336.79–13.9224.27–39.25safer16.39–26.425.83–14.8822.22–41.30
Shots in box
94%
homeawaytotalprediction13.696.4220.11safe10.74–16.633.74–9.1014.48–25.73safer9.91–17.463.00–9.8412.92–27.30
Blocked shots
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.212.407.61safe3.33–7.090.74–4.054.07–11.14safer2.78–7.630.25–4.543.03–12.18
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction7.623.1910.81safe5.41–9.831.19–5.196.60–15.03safer4.83–10.410.66–5.735.49–16.13
Possession %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction58.6041.40safe51.81–65.3934.62–48.19safer50.14–67.0632.94–49.86
Passes
95%
homeawaytotalprediction6164141030safe549–684347–480896–1164safer531–702330–498861–1199
Pass accuracy %
64%
31%
homeawayprediction76.6173.24safe72.58–80.6468.92–77.57safer71.29–81.9367.61–78.88
Fouls
26%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction9.6612.0821.73safe6.82–12.499.13–15.0215.95–27.51safer6.06–13.258.38–15.7714.45–29.02
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.483.38safe0.74–3.060.38–2.571.13–5.63safer0.44–3.370.10–2.860.54–6.22
Yellow cards
24%
22%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.933.16safe0.18–2.280.81–3.060.98–5.34safer0.00–2.540.51–3.350.43–5.90
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.050.120.17safe0.00–0.210.00–0.310.00–0.52safer0.00–0.360.00–0.440.00–0.80
GK saves
81%
homeawaytotalprediction2.375.227.59safe0.93–3.803.66–6.774.59–10.58safer0.54–4.193.24–7.203.78–11.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.82 1.85–3.78 1.60–4.03 | 0.89 0.04–1.75 0.00–1.97 | 3.71 1.88–5.53 1.40–6.01 | 77% 14% |
| Shots on target | 8.07 6.21–9.94 5.72–10.43 | 3.57 1.83–5.31 1.36–5.78 | 11.64 8.04–15.25 7.08–16.20 | 88% |
| Total shots | 21.40 17.48–25.33 16.39–26.42 | 10.36 6.79–13.92 5.83–14.88 | 31.76 24.27–39.25 22.22–41.30 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 13.69 10.74–16.63 9.91–17.46 | 6.42 3.74–9.10 3.00–9.84 | 20.11 14.48–25.73 12.92–27.30 | 94% |
| Blocked shots | 5.21 3.33–7.09 2.78–7.63 | 2.40 0.74–4.05 0.25–4.54 | 7.61 4.07–11.14 3.03–12.18 | 80% |
| Corners | 7.62 5.41–9.83 4.83–10.41 | 3.19 1.19–5.19 0.66–5.73 | 10.81 6.60–15.03 5.49–16.13 | 89% |
| Possession % | 58.60 51.81–65.39 50.14–67.06 | 41.40 34.62–48.19 32.94–49.86 | — | 83% 14% |
| Passes | 616 549–684 531–702 | 414 347–480 330–498 | 1030 896–1164 861–1199 | 95% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.61 72.58–80.64 71.29–81.93 | 73.24 68.92–77.57 67.61–78.88 | — | 64% 31% |
| Fouls | 9.66 6.82–12.49 6.06–13.25 | 12.08 9.13–15.02 8.38–15.77 | 21.73 15.95–27.51 14.45–29.02 | 26% 66% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.37 | 1.48 0.38–2.57 0.10–2.86 | 3.38 1.13–5.63 0.54–6.22 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.23 0.18–2.28 0.00–2.54 | 1.93 0.81–3.06 0.51–3.35 | 3.16 0.98–5.34 0.43–5.90 | 24% 22% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.05 0.00–0.21 0.00–0.36 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.37 0.93–3.80 0.54–4.19 | 5.22 3.66–6.77 3.24–7.20 | 7.59 4.59–10.58 3.78–11.39 | 81% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.