La Liga·Regular Season - 38·
La Liga·Regular Season - 38·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.451.793.24safe0.48–2.420.93–2.641.42–5.06safer0.23–2.670.70–2.870.94–5.54
Shots on target
35%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.695.4210.11safe2.83–6.553.68–7.166.51–13.72safer2.34–7.043.21–7.635.55–14.67
Total shots
33%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2415.0428.28safe9.31–17.1611.48–18.6020.79–35.76safer8.22–18.2510.52–19.5618.74–37.81
Shots in box
32%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction8.8110.3119.12safe5.87–11.757.63–12.9913.49–24.74safer5.04–12.586.89–13.7311.93–26.31
Blocked shots
41%
14%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.034.148.17safe2.15–5.912.49–5.794.64–11.71safer1.61–6.462.00–6.293.60–12.74
Corners
41%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction5.205.4110.61safe2.98–7.413.41–7.416.39–14.82safer2.41–7.982.88–7.945.29–15.93
Possession %
35%
61%
homeawayprediction48.1653.77safe41.37–54.9546.99–60.56safer39.70–56.6245.32–62.23
Passes
33%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction459510968safe391–526443–576835–1102safer373–544426–594799–1138
Pass accuracy %
91%
homeawayprediction63.3174.42safe59.28–67.3470.09–78.74safer57.99–68.6368.78–80.05
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7211.4623.18safe8.89–14.568.51–14.4017.40–28.96safer8.13–15.327.76–15.1515.89–30.47
Offsides
27%
20%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction1.552.233.79safe0.39–2.711.14–3.331.53–6.04safer0.09–3.010.85–3.620.94–6.63
Yellow cards
39%
22%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.791.773.55safe0.74–2.840.64–2.901.38–5.73safer0.47–3.100.35–3.190.82–6.29
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
50%
15%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.633.136.76safe2.19–5.061.57–4.683.76–9.75safer1.81–5.451.15–5.112.95–10.56
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.45 0.48–2.42 0.23–2.67 | 1.79 0.93–2.64 0.70–2.87 | 3.24 1.42–5.06 0.94–5.54 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Shots on target | 4.69 2.83–6.55 2.34–7.04 | 5.42 3.68–7.16 3.21–7.63 | 10.11 6.51–13.72 5.55–14.67 | 35% 53% |
| Total shots | 13.24 9.31–17.16 8.22–18.25 | 15.04 11.48–18.60 10.52–19.56 | 28.28 20.79–35.76 18.74–37.81 | 33% 60% |
| Shots in box | 8.81 5.87–11.75 5.04–12.58 | 10.31 7.63–12.99 6.89–13.73 | 19.12 13.49–24.74 11.93–26.31 | 32% 59% |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 2.15–5.91 1.61–6.46 | 4.14 2.49–5.79 2.00–6.29 | 8.17 4.64–11.71 3.60–12.74 | 41% 14% 44% |
| Corners | 5.20 2.98–7.41 2.41–7.98 | 5.41 3.41–7.41 2.88–7.94 | 10.61 6.39–14.82 5.29–15.93 | 41% 46% |
| Possession % | 48.16 41.37–54.95 39.70–56.62 | 53.77 46.99–60.56 45.32–62.23 | — | 35% 61% |
| Passes | 459 391–526 373–544 | 510 443–576 426–594 | 968 835–1102 799–1138 | 33% 66% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.31 59.28–67.34 57.99–68.63 | 74.42 70.09–78.74 68.78–80.05 | — | 91% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.89–14.56 8.13–15.32 | 11.46 8.51–14.40 7.76–15.15 | 23.18 17.40–28.96 15.89–30.47 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.09–3.01 | 2.23 1.14–3.33 0.85–3.62 | 3.79 1.53–6.04 0.94–6.63 | 27% 20% 53% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.84 0.47–3.10 | 1.77 0.64–2.90 0.35–3.19 | 3.55 1.38–5.73 0.82–6.29 | 39% 22% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.63 2.19–5.06 1.81–5.45 | 3.13 1.57–4.68 1.15–5.11 | 6.76 3.76–9.75 2.95–10.56 | 50% 15% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.